DVB
Deep-Value Investor, Ex-Tech Executive, Agentic Equity Research Builder
Palantir is exposed to being eaten alive by Anthropic and OpenAI. A Palantir forward-deployed engineer, per a post the author quotes, describes the engineers as smart consultants with little stickiness. Anthropic gives every consultant and government worker a reason not to use Palantir; even in Europe, governments may turn to Mistral or other EU models. x.com x.com x.com
Palantir's roughly $500B market cap and 80x sales make it prudent to trim exposure despite continued affection for the company. Its tenfold run has already delivered substantial gains, not just the beginning; smaller speculative positions are getting crushed in this environment. x.com x.com
Palantir is still too expensive, so patience is warranted. Even if the stock fell to $55, its P/E would still be 62. That answers @DimitryNakhla, who says Palantir is starting to pique his interest again at a PEG below 1.75x: not yet. x.com x.com
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.com
Palantir's valuation leaves it vulnerable to a nasty reversal. Its attached metrics show 178.8x trailing earnings, 80.1x trailing sales on an enterprise-value basis, and 110x next-twelve-month earnings. x.com
Palantir at 50x sales is not undervalued, despite CEO Alex Karp saying on CNBC that the company is systemically undervalued. Insiders are selling shares like hot cakes, which makes his claim look false. x.com
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.com
Palantir's reliance on pay-as-you-go service with refunds makes customer cancellations and sudden earnings declines or write-downs a serious risk as AI and high SaaS prices pressure the business. Its 10-Q warns of these risks. Anthropic can and will easily replace Palantir with an all-in-one platform under Democratic control of the legislative branches. x.com x.com
Palantir still trades at 87 times sales even after falling 20% this year. x.com
Palantir's government and commercial AI demand keeps compounding. Holding through volatility still calls for careful sizing: a 590% gain can turn into a 50% drawdown fast. x.com x.com
Palantir is still expensive even after falling about 45% from its highs, so it is a great business but not yet a great stock to add. At its $207 peak it priced in perfection, at roughly 70x 2026 sales and 230x trailing earnings; near $113 it trades at about 38x sales and 127x earnings as the business keeps executing. Interest returns near $100, with more aggressive buying in the $80-90 range or if the stock moves sideways long enough for revenue and earnings to grow into the multiple. x.com