Inter & Co looks very cheap at 1.2x book and 5.5x 2027 earnings, with a 16% ROE and growth of about 20-25% a year. The multiple is depressed because it is a small-cap Brazilian bank with hit-or-miss English-language investor relations and some Brazilian consumer stress heading into a presidential election. Compared with Nu, it carries more execution and single-market risk but a lot more upside if it works and gets re-rated. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

MercadoLibre's collapsing margins and earnings make its 45-times-earnings valuation look like a value trap. It faces intense competition, and less of its revenue reaches the bottom line; falling earnings make the stock more expensive even as its price falls. Nu Holdings trades at 17 times earnings and Inter & Co at 7 times, with both growing revenue and earnings robustly. Selling MercadoLibre to build positions in companies with better fundamentals is under consideration. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Inter & Co's newer cohorts do not mature at the same rates as older ones despite higher starting ARPACs, putting it at risk of serious trouble in the next credit cycle. Its leverage is much higher than Nubank's, yet its risk-adjusted returns are 5-6% against Nubank's 10-12%. Inter's ROE is below the 16%+ cost of capital for Brazilian fintech banks, leaving it unclear whether it can earn above that hurdle over time. x.com 

Brazil's election result could start fixing Inter's real problem, profitability, by lowering long-term rates, which in Brazil are driven mainly by fiscal policy. Cheaper loans and funding and customers better able to keep up with payments could lower cost of risk over time. Inter's ROE barely clears investors' required return, so the market has refused to pay for its growth. At around $6 it traded at 7.8x this year's earnings and 6.1x next year's. Nothing is decided until the 25 October runoff. … Show more

Nu Holdings' consistent EPS growth during Lula's presidency supports its three-to-five-year business outlook despite the election result. At $12.20 it trades at roughly 10.2x forecast FY27 EPS against 27% expected EPS growth, or about 0.37x PEG. A different result likely would have changed the immediate market reaction, but not where the business is headed. x.com 

Inter & Co looks practically free near its book value, offering huge upside with assets worth as much as the whole company. Shares trade just 40 cents above $4.69 book value per share. The rise in nonperforming loans from about 4.6% to 5% is not a sign of doom but a choice to enter payroll lending, where the loan book grew 12-fold to $2.5B; those loans carry higher default rates but much higher profitability. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Banco Santander Brasil offers exposure to a stronger Brazilian currency, with a dividend yield above 7% and consensus estimates of sharply accelerating EPS. Its post-election pullback does not make sense. x.com 

Brazil could be the Q4 macro story after Flávio Bolsonaro won the election's first round and, with most eliminated votes leaning right, became the runoff favorite against Lula. Brazil-linked stocks were priced for disaster on US yields, election risk and rate fears. Nu is the quality blue chip, while Inter & Co and PicPay have far more room to grow and are much cheaper; StoneCo, PagSeguro, dLocal and MercadoLibre are also candidates. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nu Holdings' growth under Lula makes today's selloff look absurd. On a TTM basis since Q1 2023, revenue rose 270% and net income went from a $180 million loss to $3.61 billion, or $0.74 EPS; having done so well during his term, it should be fine going forward. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Political fear after Lula election wins is a buying opportunity in Brazilian stocks, including EWZ, MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings. In USD, the table shows 12-month gains of 115% after 2002, 76% after 2006 and 18.5% after 2022, though shorter-term returns varied. x.com