Inter & Co looks very cheap at 1.2x book and 5.5x 2027 earnings, with a 16% ROE and growth of about 20-25% a year. The multiple is depressed because it is a small-cap Brazilian bank with hit-or-miss English-language investor relations and some Brazilian consumer stress heading into a presidential election. Compared with Nu, it carries more execution and single-market risk but a lot more upside if it works and gets re-rated. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Inter & Co could easily double if Bolsonaro delivers lower interest rates. It trades at just 1.4x 2027 book value, assuming 15% book growth, and targets 30% ROE by 2029, having already lifted ROE from 5% in 2023 to 16%. x.com 

Inter & Co's newer cohorts do not mature at the same rates as older ones despite higher starting ARPACs, putting it at risk of serious trouble in the next credit cycle. Its leverage is much higher than Nubank's, yet its risk-adjusted returns are 5-6% against Nubank's 10-12%. Inter's ROE is below the 16%+ cost of capital for Brazilian fintech banks, leaving it unclear whether it can earn above that hurdle over time. x.com 

The market is not bullish enough on Brazilian digital banks Nu and Inter & Co, which grow fast despite high rates and could do far better if rates fall. Nu grows 40% a year and Inter 25% with Brazil's Selic at 13.75%, near its highest since 2020, yet they trade at 12x and 8x 2027 earnings, and Inter at 1.5x tangible book even after a 20% jump. Nu already earns a 30% ROE and Inter 16% and climbing; a return toward the 7.25% 30-year average rate would lift both growth and returns. x.com 

Nubank is a good entry again because enough uncertainty is priced in to justify the remaining downside risk. Underwriting and risk-adjusted returns have never been better and keep surprising to the upside, and the loan book is very short-dated. Payroll and secured loans are its next growth wave in Brazil, where it adds 12 million users a year while ARPAC rises. With 40–50%+ ROE and close to 50% revenue growth, it is not out of growth. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nu Holdings remains too cheap at about 13x forward earnings, worth buying more. Per @TheRayMyers, over two years customers rose from 105M to 139M, ARPU from $11 to $17 and net income from $1.5B to $3.6B, while the share price slipped from $14 to $13. x.com 

Nu Holdings trades at only 12x forward earnings despite strong growth, expanding profitability and operating leverage across its businesses and products. It costs under $1 to serve a customer, with no branches, paperwork or hidden fees; it reached 130+ million customers in eleven years and runs a 20% efficiency ratio versus 55% for the average bank. Per @JonahLupton, Q2 revenue rose 50% and net income 67%; he puts it near 11.2x next-twelve-month EPS with fair value of $24-28 per share. x.com  … Show more

Nu Holdings has a structural cost advantage from its mobile-first, branchless model, which strips out traditional banks' complexity and high fees, and its valuation offers a good margin of safety. It also adds South American diversification and exposure to a disruptive model. The case assumes a terminal P/E of 16 and 18% annual EPS growth, though it is a quite sensitive business that calls for care. x.com 

Nu Holdings is a buy today because it shows operating leverage. Since 2020, monthly revenue per active customer has risen 382%, from $3.30 to $15.90, while the cost to serve each customer fell from $1.10 to $1.00: more revenue at lower cost. x.com  x.com 

Upstart has no AI underwriting moat; it is simply winning fewer personal-loan customers in a higher-rate environment while spending heavily. Originations rose 61% to $3.4 billion on auto (+300%) and home (+250%) with personal loans flat, but it returned to a GAAP net loss as contribution margin fell to 50% from 55% and operating expenses rose 45% to about $316 million. If the 10-year stays above 4.4%, a 55x P/E faces brutal valuation gravity, though hitting the $294M EBITDA guide would help. … Show more