Nu Holdings still has a massive runway as Nubank expands deeper across Latin America, having already built one of the region's largest digital banking platforms. x.com 

Nu Holdings' sustained growth makes election-driven pessimism look overdone. Quarterly revenue before credit-loss provisions grew at a 45.1% annualized rate from Q1 2023 to Q2 2026 under Lula. This Brazilian shock looks like the tariff scare, when markets quickly shrugged off initial pessimism. FedexSTi notes that Nu reached 139 million customers and $1 billion in quarterly net income after enduring Brazil's 2014-16 recession, Dilma's impeachment and the pandemic. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nu's 33% ROE is not proven until it survives a full credit cycle, because a bank's underwriting is only tested when borrowers stop paying. Per @sytaylor, Q2 revenue rose 39% to $5.9bn and net income topped $1bn. The open question is what happens to that ROE when unemployment rises, payments are missed, credit losses climb and money gets more expensive. Brazil's slowing economy and rising NPLs are not the same as a full cycle; until then the reported ROE is somewhat fake. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nubank keeps proving it is not just adding customers but making more money from each one, which is what long-term compounding looks like. Revenue rose 39% year over year to $5.9B, and quarterly net income topped $1B for the first time. x.com 

Nu Holdings is one of the most direct beneficiaries of lower Brazilian rates, which Brazil's election could bring. Deposit costs run at about 88% of interbank rates while card and loan yields adjust slowly, so its 22.9% net interest margin could widen. Lower rates also ease borrowers after 90+ day delinquencies rose to 6.9%, and a stronger real lifts dollar results, with about 85% of customers in Brazil. Nothing is locked in: the runoff, policy and borrower programs could still go differently. … Show more

Nu Holdings' upcoming earnings look unlikely to be well received if the market does not reward Inter & Co's results, since the two have historically traded similarly around earnings. Both operate in the same credit cycle, but Nu has a much lower share of secured lending, putting it at a credit-risk disadvantage, though it is more diversified across countries. x.com 

Nubank's stable late-delinquency ratio may understate risk building earlier in its loan book. From December to June, Stage 2 card exposure, where credit risk has increased significantly, rose from 10.1% to 11.9% while Stage 3 held at 9.1%. Across cards and loans, the combined Stage 2/3 share rose from 19.5% to 21.6%, and allowances grew from about $5.02B to $6.64B. The question is whether new lending earns enough after losses and whether these early warning signs improve as loans season. x.com 

Nu Holdings' loan book is performing even though Brazil's credit cycle is bad; the damage shows up at peers instead. @ThainRos notes the weak cycle is partly why Nu trades at 14x next-twelve-month earnings despite earnings growing around 40%. x.com 

Nu Holdings' US entry targets people from Latin America now living there, rather than direct competition with SoFi or Robinhood; entering the US matters much more than Brazil's election. After Lula's reelection, Nu opened down 21% and was testing its yearly lows. This dip is likely a great long-term buy. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nu and MercadoLibre's biggest secular-growth advantage is resilience to electoral and macro shocks. Nu hit 139 million customers and $1 billion quarterly net income through Brazil's recession, impeachment and pandemic. MercadoLibre survived the dot-com crash and devaluations; Mercado Pago has nearly 78 million monthly users and credit growth above 90% year on year. With regional e-commerce growing 15%-20% annually, their value through 2027 depends on adoption and delinquencies, not one election. … Show more