Nubank is a good entry again because enough uncertainty is priced in to justify the remaining downside risk. Underwriting and risk-adjusted returns have never been better and keep surprising to the upside, and the loan book is very short-dated. Payroll and secured loans are its next growth wave in Brazil, where it adds 12 million users a year while ARPAC rises. With 40–50%+ ROE and close to 50% revenue growth, it is not out of growth. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nu Holdings still has a massive runway as Nubank expands deeper across Latin America, having already built one of the region's largest digital banking platforms. x.com 

Nu's 33% ROE is not proven until it survives a full credit cycle, because a bank's underwriting is only tested when borrowers stop paying. Per @sytaylor, Q2 revenue rose 39% to $5.9bn and net income topped $1bn. The open question is what happens to that ROE when unemployment rises, payments are missed, credit losses climb and money gets more expensive. Brazil's slowing economy and rising NPLs are not the same as a full cycle; until then the reported ROE is somewhat fake. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nu Holdings' sustained growth makes election-driven pessimism look overdone. Quarterly revenue before credit-loss provisions grew at a 45.1% annualized rate from Q1 2023 to Q2 2026 under Lula. This Brazilian shock looks like the tariff scare, when markets quickly shrugged off initial pessimism. FedexSTi notes that Nu reached 139 million customers and $1 billion in quarterly net income after enduring Brazil's 2014-16 recession, Dilma's impeachment and the pandemic. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Inter & Co's newer cohorts do not mature at the same rates as older ones despite higher starting ARPACs, putting it at risk of serious trouble in the next credit cycle. Its leverage is much higher than Nubank's, yet its risk-adjusted returns are 5-6% against Nubank's 10-12%. Inter's ROE is below the 16%+ cost of capital for Brazilian fintech banks, leaving it unclear whether it can earn above that hurdle over time. x.com 

Nu Holdings' upcoming earnings look unlikely to be well received if the market does not reward Inter & Co's results, since the two have historically traded similarly around earnings. Both operate in the same credit cycle, but Nu has a much lower share of secured lending, putting it at a credit-risk disadvantage, though it is more diversified across countries. x.com 

Nu Holdings' loan book is performing even though Brazil's credit cycle is bad; the damage shows up at peers instead. @ThainRos notes the weak cycle is partly why Nu trades at 14x next-twelve-month earnings despite earnings growing around 40%. x.com 

Nubank keeps proving it is not just adding customers but making more money from each one, which is what long-term compounding looks like. Revenue rose 39% year over year to $5.9B, and quarterly net income topped $1B for the first time. x.com 

Nu Holdings is one of the most direct beneficiaries of lower Brazilian rates, which Brazil's election could bring. Deposit costs run at about 88% of interbank rates while card and loan yields adjust slowly, so its 22.9% net interest margin could widen. Lower rates also ease borrowers after 90+ day delinquencies rose to 6.9%, and a stronger real lifts dollar results, with about 85% of customers in Brazil. Nothing is locked in: the runoff, policy and borrower programs could still go differently. … Show more

Bank OZK's apparent credit improvement partly reflects loans moving into foreclosures that may not sell at full market value. Problem assets fell about 14%, but foreclosed assets rose 43% to $420 million; the annualized net charge-off rate eased from 0.69% to 0.53%. Management expects losses to stay elevated into part of 2027 but anticipates improvement that year. Fed rate increases should instead drive losses dramatically higher. This is the calm before the storm, not a turnaround. x.com  x.com