Flagstar's deteriorating asset quality and difficulty improving earnings increase its credit risk. Fitch cut the bank's outlook to negative on its BB+ credit rating, prompting renewed concern about bank failures. x.com 

SoFi's low-cost deposits and expanding financial ecosystem could drive faster earnings than revenue growth in 2027, potentially making it the best growth stock to own that year. Q3 adjusted revenue rose 44% to $1.37B; management estimates $51.3B in deposits save $745M annually against warehouse funding. Management guides to $6.4B in 2027 adjusted revenue and $0.90 EPS versus $0.61 EPS for 2026. Revaluation hinges on execution and credit discipline amid slowing growth and Tech Platform weakness. … Show more

Blackstone Mortgage Trust's troubled-loan burden has now translated into a 35% dividend cut, confirming the earlier warning about its uncovered payout. Its quarterly dividend falls from $0.47 to $0.30; distributable EPS before realized gains and losses was $0.42 in Q3. Higher-for-longer rates make working through troubled loans slow and costly for leveraged mortgage REITs. x.com 

Rate-hike fears are dragging down the whole lending sector, making Figure Technology look like a bargain around $25. That sector selloff could offer an opportunity over the next few months. x.com 

Bank stocks look buyable if systematic selling is reacting to a flatter yield curve: the front end that drives earnings has barely moved. JPMorgan and Citi card spending rose 10% and 13%, and Citi and Wells Fargo reported lower credit losses. Wells expects steady margins and improving interest income as loans grow and old fixed-rate assets roll into higher yields. Funds crowded into banks before results, limiting near-term buyers. x.com 

Regional banks are next in line as commercial real estate cracks, because they hold a massive share of CRE loans that go bad as property values crater. Private credit cracked first: Apollo, Ares, Barings, Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater capped redemptions, and Apollo's co-president said some private-market marks are wrong. Now buildings sell for up to 90% off; a Chicago office bought for $68.1M fetched $4M. As loans mature and refinancing bites, every forced sale resets prices for everyone. x.com  … Show more

Nubank's stable late-delinquency ratio may understate risk building earlier in its loan book. From December to June, Stage 2 card exposure, where credit risk has increased significantly, rose from 10.1% to 11.9% while Stage 3 held at 9.1%. Across cards and loans, the combined Stage 2/3 share rose from 19.5% to 21.6%, and allowances grew from about $5.02B to $6.64B. The question is whether new lending earns enough after losses and whether these early warning signs improve as loans season. x.com 

AI savings agents threaten the deposit spread behind the four largest US banks' profits. Per a Jefferies report, UK firm Riff's agent automatically moves money out of zero-interest accounts; if it scales, such balances could fall 80% and deposit margins from 190 to about 20 basis points, a hit near 80% of major UK bank profits. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup earned $69B of net interest income last quarter, over double their profits. Jefferies calls it 'when, not if'. x.com  … Show more

Regional banks rejected a double top at their 4Q21-1Q22 peak, and pumping them now is market foolishness. Rising yields, falling high-yield and investment-grade corporate bonds, and collapsing real estate all argue against owning them. x.com 

Nu's 33% ROE is not proven until it survives a full credit cycle, because a bank's underwriting is only tested when borrowers stop paying. Per @sytaylor, Q2 revenue rose 39% to $5.9bn and net income topped $1bn. The open question is what happens to that ROE when unemployment rises, payments are missed, credit losses climb and money gets more expensive. Brazil's slowing economy and rising NPLs are not the same as a full cycle; until then the reported ROE is somewhat fake. x.com  x.com  x.com