Nu Holdings' US entry targets people from Latin America now living there, rather than direct competition with SoFi or Robinhood; entering the US matters much more than Brazil's election. After Lula's reelection, Nu opened down 21% and was testing its yearly lows. This dip is likely a great long-term buy. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nu Holdings' sustained growth makes election-driven pessimism look overdone. Quarterly revenue before credit-loss provisions grew at a 45.1% annualized rate from Q1 2023 to Q2 2026 under Lula. This Brazilian shock looks like the tariff scare, when markets quickly shrugged off initial pessimism. FedexSTi notes that Nu reached 139 million customers and $1 billion in quarterly net income after enduring Brazil's 2014-16 recession, Dilma's impeachment and the pandemic. x.com  x.com  x.com 

MercadoLibre already covers Latin American consumer-finance exposure, so there's no need to own Nu, which is even harder to truly understand. Nu is all finance under foreign laws and culture, very difficult for a US investor to grasp, and MercadoLibre's business segments are hard enough. Given the disadvantage in analyzing international stocks, it is better to own only what can be truly understood. x.com 

Nubank is a good entry again because enough uncertainty is priced in to justify the remaining downside risk. Underwriting and risk-adjusted returns have never been better and keep surprising to the upside, and the loan book is very short-dated. Payroll and secured loans are its next growth wave in Brazil, where it adds 12 million users a year while ARPAC rises. With 40–50%+ ROE and close to 50% revenue growth, it is not out of growth. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nubank keeps proving it is not just adding customers but making more money from each one, which is what long-term compounding looks like. Revenue rose 39% year over year to $5.9B, and quarterly net income topped $1B for the first time. x.com 

Nu Holdings' upcoming earnings look unlikely to be well received if the market does not reward Inter & Co's results, since the two have historically traded similarly around earnings. Both operate in the same credit cycle, but Nu has a much lower share of secured lending, putting it at a credit-risk disadvantage, though it is more diversified across countries. x.com 

Nu Holdings' growth under Lula makes today's selloff look absurd. On a TTM basis since Q1 2023, revenue rose 270% and net income went from a $180 million loss to $3.61 billion, or $0.74 EPS; having done so well during his term, it should be fine going forward. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nu Holdings' superior business model will win over the long term regardless of politics. Under Lula, its Q2 2026 presentation shows customers rising to 139 million, revenue per customer to $17, the efficiency ratio falling to 20%, and quarterly net income reaching $1.06 billion; Lula has since been reelected. x.com 

Nu's 33% ROE is not proven until it survives a full credit cycle, because a bank's underwriting is only tested when borrowers stop paying. Per @sytaylor, Q2 revenue rose 39% to $5.9bn and net income topped $1bn. The open question is what happens to that ROE when unemployment rises, payments are missed, credit losses climb and money gets more expensive. Brazil's slowing economy and rising NPLs are not the same as a full cycle; until then the reported ROE is somewhat fake. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nu and MercadoLibre's biggest secular-growth advantage is resilience to electoral and macro shocks. Nu hit 139 million customers and $1 billion quarterly net income through Brazil's recession, impeachment and pandemic. MercadoLibre survived the dot-com crash and devaluations; Mercado Pago has nearly 78 million monthly users and credit growth above 90% year on year. With regional e-commerce growing 15%-20% annually, their value through 2027 depends on adoption and delinquencies, not one election. … Show more