Investing visuals
Technology Investor, Visual Company Research
The Trade Desk is not a buy even at $13 because founder Jeff Green, who still runs the company, no longer earns trust. Management made promises it failed to deliver, and Green replaced nearly the entire team in the past year, a major red flag that raises the question of whether he, not the ousted managers, is the real problem. Fundamentals point to disruption: revenue growth fell from 28% to 3%, gross margin from 82% to 74%, and operating income is shrinking fast. x.com x.comÂ
The Trade Desk's investment case no longer holds because its growth has declined very rapidly, signaling disruption. It used to be a high-growth business but kept posting poor results, and an entirely new management team adds to the red flags. It is a struggling business that may not recover at all, so the opportunity cost of holding it is high when businesses with stronger moats and longer runways are available. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Trade Desk's financial trends keep imploding, with its revenue guide 20% worse than already beaten-down expectations. Its founder and CEO's optimism about the future does not change that. x.comÂ
The Trade Desk has shown many red flags, and a huge Q2 miss confirmed them. Revenue of $715M missed the $751M estimate, adjusted EPS fell 17%, and Q3 guidance of at least $650M revenue and about $160M EBITDA was far below estimates of $805M and $341M, per @wallstengine. It bought back $78M of stock while heading for that miss. Unlike AppLovin, it has not been very profitable for years, with heavy dilution and stock-based pay, slower growth and smaller scale. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Trade Desk can be bought for less than half the price its CEO paid for nearly $150 million of shares in March. He has not sold any of those shares since. x.comÂ
The Trade Desk's management credibility, Jeff Green's in particular since the rest of the team is new, is now really doubtful. A big revenue miss came on guidance that had already been cut dramatically, and another weak guide followed, so the quarter looks awful on first impression. x.comÂ
The Trade Desk is a deflating, Ponzi-like former high flyer, with revenue growth slowing every quarter while costs explode. Growth decelerated from 25% to 19%, 18%, 14% and 12% over the past year, and the Q2 guide implies just 8%. The stock traded at 30x revenue only 18 months ago. x.comÂ
The Trade Desk is more attractive as a recovery play at 16x earnings than it was at twice the price. The stock was over 30x earnings as recently as March and only became cheap very recently. Whether the company is broken remains an open question; what is clear is that sentiment is worse than a few months ago. x.comÂ
The Trade Desk's weak results raise doubts about CEO Jeff Green's $150 million share purchase, since it was not made for profit. Per @negligible_cap, first-quarter adjusted EPS of 28 cents missed the 32-cent estimate, and second-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance of about $260 million trailed the $292.4 million estimate. x.comÂ
The Trade Desk looks like a falling knife after a quarter that broke its growth story, though a turnaround remains possible. Per an earnings recap, Q2 revenue of $715M missed its own $750M guidance as growth slowed to 3%, Q3 guidance of at least $650M implies a 12% YoY decline, and an executive exodus followed. A drop toward $11 would make it worth reconsidering. x.comÂ
The Trade Desk's short-term upside from ChatGPT monetization is undervalued as OpenAI moves to ads. At $22, down from $139, it is priced for distress or disruption even though the business seems to be doing okay, leaving perhaps 40-50% upside back to the low $30s on mean reversion. Conviction is not high. x.com x.comÂ
The Trade Desk is the worst stock ever seen, now down 50% since CEO Jeff Green bought $150 million of shares a few months ago, a purchase that is hard to square with the numbers he saw. Amazon's growing ads business is a big part of the damage. x.com x.comÂ
