jbulltard
Options Trader, Market Trend Modeling with Custom Data
The Trade Desk's CEO Jeff Green bought about $150M of stock around $23-25 despite having no need to add more, a strong signal that Rothschild Redburn's Sell rating and $11 target are wrong. Rothschild Redburn expects intensifying competition to cost market share and compress take rates, but the founder risking $150M he didn't need to is the better bet than analysts slow to change ratings. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's weak retail growth has shaken the earlier buy case. Online-store sales rose just 2% year over year, and the retail numbers look so poor that it is no longer clear at what price the shares are a buy. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Trade Desk is not a buy even at $13 because founder Jeff Green, who still runs the company, no longer earns trust. Management made promises it failed to deliver, and Green replaced nearly the entire team in the past year, a major red flag that raises the question of whether he, not the ousted managers, is the real problem. Fundamentals point to disruption: revenue growth fell from 28% to 3%, gross margin from 82% to 74%, and operating income is shrinking fast. x.com x.comÂ
The Trade Desk can be bought for less than half the price its CEO paid for nearly $150 million of shares in March. He has not sold any of those shares since. x.comÂ
Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Trade Desk's weak results raise doubts about CEO Jeff Green's $150 million share purchase, since it was not made for profit. Per @negligible_cap, first-quarter adjusted EPS of 28 cents missed the 32-cent estimate, and second-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance of about $260 million trailed the $292.4 million estimate. x.comÂ
The Trade Desk's short-term upside from ChatGPT monetization is undervalued as OpenAI moves to ads. At $22, down from $139, it is priced for distress or disruption even though the business seems to be doing okay, leaving perhaps 40-50% upside back to the low $30s on mean reversion. Conviction is not high. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS grew 39% on $46 billion of quarterly revenue, outweighing concern over the stock's 10% after-hours decline. Amazon is a buy below $200. x.comÂ
Amazon is eating the advertising lunch of both The Trade Desk and AppLovin. The Trade Desk fell 20% after a massive earnings miss and another 15% the next day, with no recovery in sight, while AppLovin has dropped as well. x.com x.comÂ
The Trade Desk is basically priced for bankruptcy, so a strong mean-reversion move could come soon. x.comÂ
The Trade Desk's financial trends keep imploding, with its revenue guide 20% worse than already beaten-down expectations. Its founder and CEO's optimism about the future does not change that. x.comÂ