The Trade Desk can be bought for less than half the price its CEO paid for nearly $150 million of shares in March. He has not sold any of those shares since. x.com
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The Trade Desk is undervalued at a P/E of 16.6, priced by the market as if headed for bankruptcy, and it is notoriously known to run in midterm years of presidential elections. It is one of the top three undervalued stocks to seek in this market, alongside Super Micro Computer at a P/E near 12 and Novo Nordisk at 11.4, priced at levels before GLP-1s came out. x.com
The Trade Desk is cheap against its cash earnings. At $13.40 it trades at 8x cash earnings, while the industry usually gets 20x. At 20x next year's cash earnings, give or take 12%, fair value is $28.76-$36.60, leaving the stock 53% below the low end of that range. This is a valuation read only, not fundamental work. x.com
The Trade Desk's financial trends keep imploding, with its revenue guide 20% worse than already beaten-down expectations. Its founder and CEO's optimism about the future does not change that. x.com
The Trade Desk looks due for a big dead-cat bounce, possibly to $30, after its CEO bought $150 million of shares in the open market at around $25. The stock now sits near $21, below his purchase price. It is a gut feeling and could take time. x.com
The Trade Desk is more attractive as a recovery play at 16x earnings than it was at twice the price. The stock was over 30x earnings as recently as March and only became cheap very recently. Whether the company is broken remains an open question; what is clear is that sentiment is worse than a few months ago. x.com
The Trade Desk is not cheap just because it is down 70%, since its business is deteriorating. Growth has slowed and margins have weakened for a couple of years, so a 70x forward multiple compressing toward 12–20x reflects lower expected growth, not a bargain. The market rewards earnings growth, revenue growth and improving cash flow, and dip buyers driven by recency bias are missing that. x.com x.com
Celsius has seen a lot of recent insider buying, and insider buys lately have tended to age very well and quickly, with The Trade Desk the main exception. Intel is a recent example: per @wallstengine, CEO Lip-Bu Tan bought about $10M of Intel stock at $95 a share. x.com
Klarna's CEO made a massive $10M insider purchase at the lows this past Wednesday. Many stocks have popped shortly after large insider buys this year, The Trade Desk being the exception. x.com
The Trade Desk is the worst stock ever seen, now down 50% since CEO Jeff Green bought $150 million of shares a few months ago, a purchase that is hard to square with the numbers he saw. Amazon's growing ads business is a big part of the damage. x.com x.com
The Trade Desk is basically priced for bankruptcy, so a strong mean-reversion move could come soon. x.com