Bob Elliott
CIO of Unlimited Funds, Portfolio Manager of Hedge Fund ETFs
Oil, diversified commodities and gold are true diversifiers that far too few investors hold, while nearly everyone holds bonds, down 1% this year. Year to date oil is up 80%, diversified commodities 23%, managed futures 7%, global macro 5% and gold 5%. A balanced investor could allocate roughly 10% each to diversified commodities and gold. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is an exceptional portfolio insurance policy and inflation hedge, so a 5-10% allocation makes sense for most investors to dampen drawdowns and hedge tail risk. It has near-zero long-run correlation to stocks and bonds, holds value in crises and carries no counterparty risk, while rising central bank buying from emerging markets is a structural tailwind. Gold returned 10.9% a year from 2000 to 2024 and now trades above $5,000. It is not a wealth-building engine, though: it pays no income. … Show more
Gold stands to benefit if a tech drawdown keeps the Fed from hiking, weakening the dollar and lowering real rates. With the economy and index reliant on more than 40 AI names, that is the setup gold has awaited since January. x.comÂ
Gold has been in distribution all of 2026 and can stay there for years, so every rally should be sold. Money is rotating elsewhere, especially into semiconductors and crypto. x.comÂ
Capital is rotating out of AI capex into areas it starved for two years. Health care, airlines, defense and metals are where the market wants to be for the six weeks to the December 9 Fed meeting; gold and silver are bought on every dip. Risk is still being taken elsewhere: if S&P futures hold 7,700, the rotation carries the index; if they lose it, this was a correction in disguise. x.comÂ
Gold has swung from overbought to oversold, making gold-related exposure a good place to start deploying capital. Last week gold fell 10% as Brent jumped 9% to $112 on the Iran war and hawkish central banks lifted yields; losses on stocks, bonds and metals at once usually signal forced deleveraging near a short-term bottom. Only 18% of tracked technical metrics were oversold against a ~50% bottom threshold, though escalation could push it there, and little good news on Iran could spark a rally. … Show more
Gold tends to perform poorly when liquidity contracts, while it performs best during recoveries. Gold looks likely to fall next year. x.com x.comÂ
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Gold is a better home for retirement savings now because bad assets get dumped into pension funds and savers can be left with nothing. x.comÂ
Capital is rotating out of crude oil, gold and silver into equities, with crypto to follow, giving the bull market fresh legs. All three commodities look exhausted after their melt-up, though their longer-term debasement, deficit and industrial-demand stories remain intact. Lower energy and commodity prices mean better margins and less inflation pressure. US large caps and the Nasdaq-100 show no signs of topping as AI earnings lift the S&P 500, and bitcoin is likely bottoming in the mid-$60Ks. … Show more
Gold looks like the safest place to go defensive now. Geopolitics are bad, the market is losing key support, inflation will be hard to avoid and rate cuts are less likely. Gold has had a breather and is back on support, while trends look broken on many other assets and do not reverse easily. Returns may not be the best, but this is a time when safety matters more. x.comÂ
