Robotaxis could widen Uber's moat rather than destroy it, because its real advantage is the network matching huge pools of demand with whatever supply is available, not drivers' lack of negotiating power. Robotaxis change the supply but don't eliminate the network. The question is whether Uber becomes the toll road for autonomous mobility, letting Waymo and dozens of competing AV suppliers fight over the economics while Uber owns the customer, demand and dispatch layer. x.com 

Uber's trips could keep growing even without a Waymo partnership because the ride-hail market may expand faster than Waymo takes share. Based on estimated inputs and Waymo's reported fleet plans, every modeled scenario has Uber trips growing, though its US trip share falls from about 73% to 69% by Q4 2028 in the target case. The model excludes take rate, pricing and Uber's AV capex. x.com 

Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com 

Uber's network effects could make it the app robotaxi fleets need to keep their cars fully operational. It is one of the best platforms on earth and a five-year buy at today's valuation, with opportunity too compelling to pass up despite shares falling about 25% in the past year on robotaxi fears. Bookings grew 24% last quarter and trailing free cash flow exceeded $10 billion. Waymo and Tesla could choose to bypass Uber; Waymo already runs its own app in most of its cities. x.com 

Uber's asset-light platform makes it a direct winner of autonomous driving, because AV operators can't match its network's dispatch efficiency. AV rides on Uber grew over 10x year over year in Q1 2026, with launches in up to 15 cities by end-2026, and Waymo partners rather than competes. Its 200M+ monthly users cut empty miles, and human drivers add elastic capacity. It made about $9.8B of 2025 free cash flow, Q1 bookings rose 21% to $53.7B, and buying Delivery Hero could lift bookings to $160B. … Show more

Waymo could do to Uber what Netflix did to Blockbuster. Waymo can act as a Trojan horse, targeting high-profit routes such as airport and corporate trips in dense urban areas at very high contribution margins, then expanding from there. x.com  x.com 

Uber's potential Instacart acquisition could create valuable marketplace and route-density synergies. Scaled marketplace assets are rare; buying one would also keep competitors from consolidating grocery delivery, a sticky category with large average orders. Growth alone is not the measure of the deal, and tech buybacks are overrated. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Uber trades at its lowest valuation since its IPO on fears that autonomous vehicles will make it obsolete, yet it is firing on all cylinders and positioning as the AV distribution layer. It already has 14 AV partners including Waymo, and city-by-city regulation favors its global network. Its driver-rider flywheel gives it 75% US share against Lyft. Uber One's 30 million members spend twice as much and drive 40% of bookings, and free cash flow has gone from negative to strongly positive. x.com 

Uber's Waymo partnership looks to be on the brink, because once Waymo understands customer patterns it no longer needs Uber. x.com 

Booking Holdings looks ridiculously cheap against its own history, and its business and moat inspire much more confidence than Uber's even with AI risk. Its P/FCF is 11.94, versus a ten-year median of 18.85. x.com