RTX is a painfully obvious long. @RealAirPower1 highlights Raytheon's ADM-160 MALD, a 250lb expendable decoy that cruises at Mach 0.9 for 500 miles and mimics radar signatures from a B-52 to an F-35, forcing air defenses to chase shadows. x.com
Paradise Capital
AI & Defense Investor, Ex-Special Operations/Private Military Contractor
RTX benefits from Pratt & Whitney's recovering jet-engine business alongside rising global defense budgets. In Q3 FY26, sales rose 11%, operating profit 32% with margins expanding, and net income to common 35%; basic EPS rose from $1.43 to $1.91. Grade A: RTX sits in the sweet spot as the world rearms and flies more. x.com
RTX pairs solid fundamentals with near-term share pressure, backed by sustained defense demand, a cash-rich aftermarket and a fading GTF engine problem. Geopolitical tension drives demand for air defense, radars and munitions as procurement shifts to long-term replenishment. Delayed Boeing and Airbus deliveries keep older fleets flying, lifting high-margin repair work at Collins and Pratt & Whitney. GTF remediation is on track, with aircraft on ground down about 15% and repair output up 23%. … Show more
RTX, a $300B company, now depends on a US budget burdened by $1.7T of interest expense on $40-42T of debt. That is the response to @JaguarAnalytics' bullish read on Raytheon's $22.9B multiyear Navy contract for Tomahawk cruise missiles, which supports a production ramp to more than 1,000 missiles a year. x.com
RTX's constraint has shifted from finding demand to building fast enough, as a commercial travel recovery and global rearmament land in one company. All three businesses expanded margins while orders outpaced shipments. Pratt & Whitney certified the GTF Advantage engine and sharply lifted PW1100 shop visits; Raytheon more than doubled first-half munitions output and won GEM-T awards; Collins' Sidekick software was picked for the Air Force's CCA program. Full-year guidance rose. x.com
RTX's roughly $51 billion in recent multi-year missile deals and expanding backlog support a bullish setup. Backlog reached $289 billion last quarter, up 22% year over year, and management raised full-year sales, EPS and free cash flow guidance. The trigger is $193.90, with chart targets of $197.35, $200.41 and $202.67. x.com
Legacy defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing and RTX face new competition that is coming to eat their lunch. @damianplayer notes Anduril built a new Apache-launched drone weapon in six months that flies 286 miles and, in one version, hits as hard as a Hellfire missile, when defense projects used to take 20 years. An Anduril IPO is more exciting than SpaceX's. x.com
Rising regional conflicts and soaring NATO spending commitments favor defense companies such as Rocket Lab and RTX, which carry massive multi-year backlogs. Rocket Lab, a $40 billion space launch and defense technology player, is up about 2,700% from its lows. RTX is up a more modest 69% but acts as a remarkably safe, high-yielding haven when institutions rotate. Both sit on the winning side of a 2026 market where money is rotating into favored sectors rather than lifting the whole index. x.com
Missile replenishment looks like the best risk-reward macro thesis, favoring Lockheed Martin and RTX. The missile replenishment program is currently forecast to run through 2031. x.com
Legacy defense primes such as Lockheed Martin, RTX and Northrop Grumman are losing work as counter-drone contracts go to newer software-defined systems. The US deployment of Anduril's counter-drone system for homeland defense shows a company that did not exist a decade ago doing what legacy air-defense primes used to own outright. The trade is that reallocation inside flat-to-modest budgets, not the budget number itself. x.com
When wars drag on, the sensors and components inside weapons platforms make the money, which favors nLIGHT, LightPath and RFHIC. On March 3, after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, KOSPI crashed 7.24% while sensor makers such as RFHIC rallied alongside platform names. RF power amplifiers inside radars such as Cheongung-II's are the bottleneck, and RFHIC signed a KRW 50.6 billion amplifier contract with Raytheon Canada. The same InP, GaAs and GaN wafers go into lasers, radars and IR sensors. x.com … Show more