Missile replenishment looks like the best risk-reward macro thesis, favoring Lockheed Martin and RTX. The missile replenishment program is currently forecast to run through 2031. x.comÂ
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RTX's roughly $51 billion in recent multi-year missile deals and expanding backlog support a bullish setup. Backlog reached $289 billion last quarter, up 22% year over year, and management raised full-year sales, EPS and free cash flow guidance. The trigger is $193.90, with chart targets of $197.35, $200.41 and $202.67. x.comÂ
Rising regional conflicts and soaring NATO spending commitments favor defense companies such as Rocket Lab and RTX, which carry massive multi-year backlogs. Rocket Lab, a $40 billion space launch and defense technology player, is up about 2,700% from its lows. RTX is up a more modest 69% but acts as a remarkably safe, high-yielding haven when institutions rotate. Both sit on the winning side of a 2026 market where money is rotating into favored sectors rather than lifting the whole index. x.comÂ
RTX, a $300B company, now depends on a US budget burdened by $1.7T of interest expense on $40-42T of debt. That is the response to @JaguarAnalytics' bullish read on Raytheon's $22.9B multiyear Navy contract for Tomahawk cruise missiles, which supports a production ramp to more than 1,000 missiles a year. x.comÂ
RTX benefits from Pratt & Whitney's recovering jet-engine business alongside rising global defense budgets. In Q3 FY26, sales rose 11%, operating profit 32% with margins expanding, and net income to common 35%; basic EPS rose from $1.43 to $1.91. Grade A: RTX sits in the sweet spot as the world rearms and flies more. x.comÂ
RTX pairs solid fundamentals with near-term share pressure, backed by sustained defense demand, a cash-rich aftermarket and a fading GTF engine problem. Geopolitical tension drives demand for air defense, radars and munitions as procurement shifts to long-term replenishment. Delayed Boeing and Airbus deliveries keep older fleets flying, lifting high-margin repair work at Collins and Pratt & Whitney. GTF remediation is on track, with aircraft on ground down about 15% and repair output up 23%. … Show more
Drone stocks fell in 2026 even as backlogs hit records: Ukraine turned aircraft into ammunition, and the Pentagon's 2027 request holds nearly $75B for drones and counter-drone. AeroVironment's reordered loitering munitions and Kratos's jet drones are highest conviction. Counter-drone names Ondas, Axon, Motorola Solutions, Safe Pro, DroneShield and Rheinmetall gain as threats grow, Unusual Machines from Chinese-parts bans. Primes bury drone exposure; pure plays may not convert backlog. x.com … Show more
RTX's constraint has shifted from finding demand to building fast enough, as a commercial travel recovery and global rearmament land in one company. All three businesses expanded margins while orders outpaced shipments. Pratt & Whitney certified the GTF Advantage engine and sharply lifted PW1100 shop visits; Raytheon more than doubled first-half munitions output and won GEM-T awards; Collins' Sidekick software was picked for the Air Force's CCA program. Full-year guidance rose. x.comÂ
Mtron stands to benefit as the Pentagon moves to replenish missile stockpiles depleted by the Iran war: its management believes it has one of the highest levels of missile revenue content of any listed U.S. defense supplier, working with Raytheon, Lockheed and other primes. Defense contractors are meeting Trump and Pentagon officials on ramping munitions output, and the Pentagon has requested $52.9 billion in FY27 to expand production of 12 critical munitions, per WSJ. x.comÂ
Defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and RTX always dump the day peace headlines land, because the conflict buildup was the trade. Explanations about how Patriot and THAAD performed, as @HyperTechInvest suggests, are what people tell themselves afterward. x.comÂ
Lockheed Martin looks like a really great opportunity in defense, with orders outpacing deliveries at a reasonable valuation. Its backlog is a record $230B, almost 3x expected 2026 revenue, after $65B of new Q2 orders. Q2 sales grew 11% to $20.1B, and management raised free cash flow guidance to over $7B for 2026. It trades at about 18-19x 2026 earnings, reasonable for a sector leader; the next few weeks are about finding an entry point. x.comÂ