Defense stocks such as Kratos, AeroVironment, Ondas, Northrop Grumman and L3Harris are trading as if global leaders had turned into pacifist hippies, which is probably not the case. x.com 

Drone stocks fell in 2026 even as backlogs hit records: Ukraine turned aircraft into ammunition, and the Pentagon's 2027 request holds nearly $75B for drones and counter-drone. AeroVironment's reordered loitering munitions and Kratos's jet drones are highest conviction. Counter-drone names Ondas, Axon, Motorola Solutions, Safe Pro, DroneShield and Rheinmetall gain as threats grow, Unusual Machines from Chinese-parts bans. Primes bury drone exposure; pure plays may not convert backlog. x.com  … Show more

Selling defense primes RTX, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin and L3Harris on peace hopes is misguided because the US has a whole arsenal of munitions to replace and modernize. The war showed Washington how far behind it is. Lawmakers including Sen. Mark Kelly warned that Congress will likely face supplemental funding requests as stockpiles deplete quickly against Iran's large missile and drone arsenal. x.com 

RTX, a $300B company, now depends on a US budget burdened by $1.7T of interest expense on $40-42T of debt. That is the response to @JaguarAnalytics' bullish read on Raytheon's $22.9B multiyear Navy contract for Tomahawk cruise missiles, which supports a production ramp to more than 1,000 missiles a year. x.com 

Defense money is rotating into next-generation drone makers such as AeroVironment and Red Cat, not just legacy plays like Lockheed's F-35, after NATO members pledged 5% of GDP to defense, roughly a second U.S. military budget. x.com 

RTX and Lockheed Martin should keep succeeding over the long term because war is good business. The big defense stocks have gone parabolic since COVID, but betting against them is a mistake. RTX's new contract matters more for Rocket Lab than for RTX, though it is still a positive. x.com 

Legacy defense primes such as Lockheed Martin, RTX and Northrop Grumman are losing work as counter-drone contracts go to newer software-defined systems. The US deployment of Anduril's counter-drone system for homeland defense shows a company that did not exist a decade ago doing what legacy air-defense primes used to own outright. The trade is that reallocation inside flat-to-modest budgets, not the budget number itself. x.com 

A US military-budget increase would be well-timed for defense stocks as most appear to be bottoming or sitting on support. If history repeats, one will probably be announced soon. Since the earlier sell signals, Amprius is down about 42%, AeroVironment about 60% and Ondas about 54%; many other names also look oversold. x.com 

Public defense stocks look mispriced because demand and private valuations are rising while their shares fall 20%. Anduril raised $5 billion at $61 billion, about 28x sales, while Ondas trades near 5x with a comparable counter-drone stack. The five primes' backlog rose 23.7% to $1.36 trillion, and the Pentagon's FY2027 request has $75 billion for drones and counter-drone tech. Peace rotates spending rather than ending it, and as in the 1990s, a bear market should spur small-cap consolidation. … Show more

Electro Optic Systems, nLIGHT and LightPath are defense stocks to own as forward multiples may compress with no high-profile conflicts in sight. US and European rearmament is unchanged and earnings should grow solidly for two to three years, but upside may take patience. Well-managed, profitable firms with backlog growth in the fastest-growing niches should hold up better than cash-burning drone makers. EOS's UAE joint venture, laser contract and $124 million RWS contract add optionality. x.com