A US military-budget increase would be well-timed for defense stocks as most appear to be bottoming or sitting on support. If history repeats, one will probably be announced soon. Since the earlier sell signals, Amprius is down about 42%, AeroVironment about 60% and Ondas about 54%; many other names also look oversold. x.com 

Defense and drone stocks have been oversold even though their fundamentals have not changed. Ondas offers explosive growth and counter-drone exposure, Kratos has Valkyrie and hypersonics, AeroVironment has Switchblade and Army contracts, Unusual Machines has leverage to drone components, and Red Cat has Army wins and NDAA-compliant drones. x.com 

L3Harris is unappealing because its weapons are less clearly net good for society than Northrop Grumman's. Its smaller armaments deter under the right administration, but under trigger-happy ones the line between defense and offense blurs, and what is made today may be used 30 years from now. Northrop's ICBM modernization, B-21s and space work such as the James Webb telescope look net positive, as more lethal weapons have historically deterred war. L3Harris also just had a CEO shake-up. x.com 

Defense stocks make no sense in a bear market when wars are being paused because of weapons shortages. Per the NYT, as relayed by @runews, Trump put Iran escalation on hold over concerns about weapons shortages, a sign of demand that should support Ondas, Electro Optic Systems and Kraken Robotics. x.com 

Kratos and Kraken Robotics are falling on sector macro, not business decline, so a strong year-end close looks likely. Both hit 52-week lows, down 68% and 64% from this year's highs. Per Bernstein, peace headlines and a stalled US budget put defense at a 12% discount to the S&P, but it expects the 2027 budget to rise over 10%. Raymond James notes tax-loss selling hits YTD losers into mid-October, and they often lead the rebound. Kratos has a record $2.08B backlog; Kraken guides $290-320M. x.com 

Space and defense stocks such as Rocket Lab, Kratos and AeroVironment warrant skepticism after a big run because the sector doesn't generate profits the way other sectors do. Many of the announced deals are burdens that take a long time to execute. Excitement around Rocket Lab could return before or after its Neutron launch. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Government spending is defense's version of AI hyperscaler capex but more dependable, and the market isn't pricing it in. Global defense is seen at $3T+ for 2027 versus about $1T of hyperscaler capex, and the Pentagon seeks $80B in wartime spending on top of a $1.5T budget. With Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Kratos, AeroVironment, AEVEX and Kraken Robotics 24-58% off highs, capital could rotate back soon, especially if institutions diversify from AI, rewarding contrarians in 3-6 months. … Show more

AeroVironment, Kratos, Axon, Lockheed Martin and Palantir win as the FY2027 defense budget is projected at $1.5 trillion, about $400 billion above this year. AeroVironment's revenue rose 143% with a record $1.1B funded backlog as the Pentagon orders Switchblade drones by the thousands. Kratos has a record $2B backlog for low-cost autonomous jets. Axon's revenue rose 34% with $14.3B in future bookings. Lockheed's backlog hit $186.4B. Palantir is the AI software layer under autonomous warfare. … Show more

Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Northrop Grumman shows a bullish disconnect: the stock is pricing in supply chain issues and lagging near its lows, while sales are surging and the government is ready to spend $1.5 trillion on new arms. x.com