PhotonBull
Equity Researcher, Co-Runner of Retail Club
Defense stocks make no sense in a bear market when wars are being paused because of weapons shortages. Per the NYT, as relayed by @runews, Trump put Iran escalation on hold over concerns about weapons shortages, a sign of demand that should support Ondas, Electro Optic Systems and Kraken Robotics. x.comÂ
Defense stocks have bottomed, and a huge rotation into names such as EOS, Ondas, AeroVironment, Kraken Robotics, Kratos, Palantir and DRNZ is starting after the US House passed the $1.15 trillion National Defense Authorization Act, per @Kalshi_Finance. With the sector so beaten up, the vote is a boost that reminds everyone of defense spending. Lockheed Martin's earnings call could add another lift if an analyst asks about it. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Defense stocks such as Kratos, AeroVironment, Ondas, Northrop Grumman and L3Harris are trading as if global leaders had turned into pacifist hippies, which is probably not the case. x.comÂ
A US military-budget increase would be well-timed for defense stocks as most appear to be bottoming or sitting on support. If history repeats, one will probably be announced soon. Since the earlier sell signals, Amprius is down about 42%, AeroVironment about 60% and Ondas about 54%; many other names also look oversold. x.comÂ
Kraken Robotics and Ondas Holdings face weak demand prospects: it is hard to see how many battery-powered submarines Taiwan or Europe will actually order. x.comÂ
Jan Zuazo Pfingsten
Thematic Investor, Physical Scarcity & AI Infrastructure, Primary-Source Research
Public defense stocks look mispriced because demand and private valuations are rising while their shares fall 20%. Anduril raised $5 billion at $61 billion, about 28x sales, while Ondas trades near 5x with a comparable counter-drone stack. The five primes' backlog rose 23.7% to $1.36 trillion, and the Pentagon's FY2027 request has $75 billion for drones and counter-drone tech. Peace rotates spending rather than ending it, and as in the 1990s, a bear market should spur small-cap consolidation. … Show more
Defense and drone stocks have been oversold even though their fundamentals have not changed. Ondas offers explosive growth and counter-drone exposure, Kratos has Valkyrie and hypersonics, AeroVironment has Switchblade and Army contracts, Unusual Machines has leverage to drone components, and Red Cat has Army wins and NDAA-compliant drones. x.comÂ
Non-ITAR defense suppliers such as Electro Optic Systems, BAE Systems, Theon and Rheinmetall are an overlooked source of alpha as Europe, Asia and the Middle East shift defense spending away from US ITAR-controlled equipment. That shift comes with huge spending, yet US-based investors misunderstand it and wrongly call defense tech dead. Eurosatory confirmed the view, and the big alpha is not in drone builders. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Defense is the sector money is likely to rotate into heavily over the coming weeks and months, favoring nLIGHT and LightPath. Per @BlackScholesMan, the Iran war exposed serious shortfalls in Western defense that need to be plugged, and the money will follow. x.comÂ
Small-cap defense stocks such as Red Cat, AEVEX and Kraken Robotics look like buying opportunities after a sell-the-news drop following the Iran strikes, because the thesis has only gotten stronger. The U.S. lacks enough drones, interceptors, mine-hunting technology and critical metals, and a proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget should bring a wave of fresh contracts as it advances. The Iran war is a major catalyst even though Lockheed, Kratos and Red Cat have fallen 15-19% in a month. x.comÂ
Defense, drone and space stocks such as AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Kratos and AeroVironment are set to receive non-cyclical, perpetual capex while many sit 60%-70% below their highs. Spending is rising in the US and across the rest of the world, flowing to names that are not crowded or recently up 1,000%. The sector has reset and been left for dead, making it a target basket for next year, including Ondas, LightPath, nLight, Karman and Inflection Point. x.com x.comÂ
Electro Optic Systems, nLIGHT and LightPath are defense stocks to own as forward multiples may compress with no high-profile conflicts in sight. US and European rearmament is unchanged and earnings should grow solidly for two to three years, but upside may take patience. Well-managed, profitable firms with backlog growth in the fastest-growing niches should hold up better than cash-burning drone makers. EOS's UAE joint venture, laser contract and $124 million RWS contract add optionality. x.comÂ
