Missile replenishment looks like the best risk-reward macro thesis, favoring Lockheed Martin and RTX. The missile replenishment program is currently forecast to run through 2031. x.com 

RTX benefits from Pratt & Whitney's recovering jet-engine business alongside rising global defense budgets. In Q3 FY26, sales rose 11%, operating profit 32% with margins expanding, and net income to common 35%; basic EPS rose from $1.43 to $1.91. Grade A: RTX sits in the sweet spot as the world rearms and flies more. x.com 

RTX's roughly $51 billion in recent multi-year missile deals and expanding backlog support a bullish setup. Backlog reached $289 billion last quarter, up 22% year over year, and management raised full-year sales, EPS and free cash flow guidance. The trigger is $193.90, with chart targets of $197.35, $200.41 and $202.67. x.com 

CPI Aerostructures is among the few small shops left to feed missile replenishment, and its qualified tooling is a moat the Pentagon lacks years to re-source. It is single-source to Raytheon on missile wing assemblies, with first deliveries due later this year. A $533M backlog against $74M of TTM revenue, growing 16% at 23% gross margin, is seven years of work at 1.4x EV/sales. The risk is $27M of net debt, $1M of cash and negative free cash flow; a slipping ramp hits the balance sheet first. … Show more

RTX pairs solid fundamentals with near-term share pressure, backed by sustained defense demand, a cash-rich aftermarket and a fading GTF engine problem. Geopolitical tension drives demand for air defense, radars and munitions as procurement shifts to long-term replenishment. Delayed Boeing and Airbus deliveries keep older fleets flying, lifting high-margin repair work at Collins and Pratt & Whitney. GTF remediation is on track, with aircraft on ground down about 15% and repair output up 23%. … Show more

RTX, a $300B company, now depends on a US budget burdened by $1.7T of interest expense on $40-42T of debt. That is the response to @JaguarAnalytics' bullish read on Raytheon's $22.9B multiyear Navy contract for Tomahawk cruise missiles, which supports a production ramp to more than 1,000 missiles a year. x.com 

Lockheed Martin is cheap against its earnings, trading at 22x trailing and 18x next year's, versus the 24x aerospace and defense suppliers usually get. At 24x next year's $32.72 EPS, give or take 12%, fair value runs $690.97 to $879.42, so the stock sits 15% below where fair value starts. This is a valuation read on reported earnings and estimates only, not fundamental work. x.com 

Lockheed Martin's $4.7 billion Patriot interceptor contract shows a defense supercycle whose backlog Wall Street has not fully priced. Patriot is the backbone of US and allied air defense, countries are asking how fast they can get one, and more contracts are behind this one. Defense budgets are accelerating globally with bipartisan political will, and governments rarely cut them once they start; the money also flows down to suppliers. x.com  x.com 

Lockheed Martin is a defensive core holding with near-monopoly defense franchises and steady cash flow. The F-35, over 25% of revenue, is the only fifth-generation fighter deployed at scale in the West, and FY2026-27 budgets raise F-35 funding 62% and more than double PAC-3 and THAAD procurement. Backlog is $186.4B, 2.4x annual revenue, new Army and Navy contracts landed May 28, and over 60% of free cash flow goes to dividends and buybacks. x.com 

Lockheed Martin looks like a really great opportunity in defense, with orders outpacing deliveries at a reasonable valuation. Its backlog is a record $230B, almost 3x expected 2026 revenue, after $65B of new Q2 orders. Q2 sales grew 11% to $20.1B, and management raised free cash flow guidance to over $7B for 2026. It trades at about 18-19x 2026 earnings, reasonable for a sector leader; the next few weeks are about finding an entry point. x.com