CPI Aerostructures can work as a small portfolio position, though gross-margin upside looks limited because it appears to operate all contracts on a fixed-price basis. Inflation expectations are baked into prices, but only as assumptions, and an inflationary wave from Iran could repeat the A-10 problems in other programs. x.com 

Missile replenishment looks like the best risk-reward macro thesis, favoring Lockheed Martin and RTX. The missile replenishment program is currently forecast to run through 2031. x.com 

RTX pairs solid fundamentals with near-term share pressure, backed by sustained defense demand, a cash-rich aftermarket and a fading GTF engine problem. Geopolitical tension drives demand for air defense, radars and munitions as procurement shifts to long-term replenishment. Delayed Boeing and Airbus deliveries keep older fleets flying, lifting high-margin repair work at Collins and Pratt & Whitney. GTF remediation is on track, with aircraft on ground down about 15% and repair output up 23%. … Show more

Mtron stands to benefit as the Pentagon moves to replenish missile stockpiles depleted by the Iran war: its management believes it has one of the highest levels of missile revenue content of any listed U.S. defense supplier, working with Raytheon, Lockheed and other primes. Defense contractors are meeting Trump and Pentagon officials on ramping munitions output, and the Pentagon has requested $52.9 billion in FY27 to expand production of 12 critical munitions, per WSJ. x.com 

RTX's constraint has shifted from finding demand to building fast enough, as a commercial travel recovery and global rearmament land in one company. All three businesses expanded margins while orders outpaced shipments. Pratt & Whitney certified the GTF Advantage engine and sharply lifted PW1100 shop visits; Raytheon more than doubled first-half munitions output and won GEM-T awards; Collins' Sidekick software was picked for the Air Force's CCA program. Full-year guidance rose. x.com 

RTX, a $300B company, now depends on a US budget burdened by $1.7T of interest expense on $40-42T of debt. That is the response to @JaguarAnalytics' bullish read on Raytheon's $22.9B multiyear Navy contract for Tomahawk cruise missiles, which supports a production ramp to more than 1,000 missiles a year. x.com 

Applied Aerospace & Defense offers exposure to growing defense, space and precision-strike spending through a business still very early in its public-market story. x.com 

Lockheed Martin is a defensive core holding with near-monopoly defense franchises and steady cash flow. The F-35, over 25% of revenue, is the only fifth-generation fighter deployed at scale in the West, and FY2026-27 budgets raise F-35 funding 62% and more than double PAC-3 and THAAD procurement. Backlog is $186.4B, 2.4x annual revenue, new Army and Navy contracts landed May 28, and over 60% of free cash flow goes to dividends and buybacks. x.com 

Voyager Technologies' Raytheon contract to advance propulsion for the SM-3 interceptor family is the most underrated news in an explosive missile production cycle. Per @SpaceInvestor_D, Voyager will supply its solid controllable throttleable propulsion and divert, attitude and control systems, the precision subsystems behind accuracy in exo-atmospheric midcourse flight. x.com 

Lockheed Martin looks like a really great opportunity in defense, with orders outpacing deliveries at a reasonable valuation. Its backlog is a record $230B, almost 3x expected 2026 revenue, after $65B of new Q2 orders. Q2 sales grew 11% to $20.1B, and management raised free cash flow guidance to over $7B for 2026. It trades at about 18-19x 2026 earnings, reasonable for a sector leader; the next few weeks are about finding an entry point. x.com