CPI Aerostructures is among the few small shops left to feed missile replenishment, and its qualified tooling is a moat the Pentagon lacks years to re-source. It is single-source to Raytheon on missile wing assemblies, with first deliveries due later this year. A $533M backlog against $74M of TTM revenue, growing 16% at 23% gross margin, is seven years of work at 1.4x EV/sales. The risk is $27M of net debt, $1M of cash and negative free cash flow; a slipping ramp hits the balance sheet first. … Show more

Applied Aerospace & Defense's record $1.13B backlog and sole-supplier role on 87% of its business make it much stronger than its chart looks. Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 38.5%, and customers include SpaceX and Anduril. Jefferies named it one of its top small/mid-cap cyclical ideas with a Buy rating and $20 target, more than 80% above Wednesday's close. The falling-wedge trigger is $11.54. x.com 

Albany International's planned sale of its structures-assembly business is a catalyst, not a risk, because CH-53K losses are fully provisioned. A $147M reserve covers the remaining eight-year loss on the fixed-price contract, and engineered composites margins rose from 8.5% to 13.3% in Q2 with no estimate drag. Eight final bidders, with a Sikorsky renegotiation as fallback, make a sale at almost any price accretive. What remains is LEAP, 787, JASSM and LRASM ramps, plus GTF inlet work from 2027. … Show more

Aerospace stocks have been unfairly punished by noise while the sector's long-term structural trends remain incredibly strong. Not even COVID could bring aerospace down, and the latest correction stems from sharp geopolitical tensions and oil price spikes. A Trump climbdown and easing tensions should soon light the fuse. x.com 

US strikes on Iran turn the Strait of Hormuz into a war zone and hand Lockheed Martin, RTX and Northrop Grumman a catalyst no earnings report could create. When the US military goes kinetic, the budget conversation changes instantly. Iran's attacks on commercial vessels signal it is using the strait, a key route for oil, LNG and petrochemicals, as a weapon, spiking insurance and shipping rates, and capital flows to defense and energy as headlines heat up. There will be no all-clear. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Northrop Grumman's B-21 bomber has reached a profitability inflection, removing a key risk and unlocking significant margin upside. After inflation-driven losses in early production, digital manufacturing gains and a new Air Force agreement have turned the program to positive operating income. A $95.61 billion backlog locks in years of revenue visibility, and B-21 and Sentinel sit in nuclear modernization spending that is essentially untouchable. Space defense adds growth. x.com