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Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ
Altria, Johnson & Johnson, Waste Management, TJX, Linde, Costco and Quest Diagnostics add defense to a portfolio, scoring highest among S&P 500 stocks on an antifragility screen of low volatility, strong free cash flow, minimal debt and stable earnings. All are also trending up this year, with momentum scores above 75; Altria scores 100 on antifragility and J&J 99. x.comÂ
Microsoft's position is the most crowded among the Magnificent Seven, and fund flows are against it as funds sell those stocks to reserve cash for Anthropic's IPO. It faded despite an excellent earnings report. x.comÂ
Microsoft's OpenAI exposure is a very good reason to keep it alongside Anthropic exposure through Alphabet and Amazon. The prior thought of reducing or exiting Microsoft has given way to a tentative hold, with no plans to add for now. x.comÂ
Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Visa, Mastercard, ASML, TSMC, Costco and Apple are wonderful businesses worth holding forever at a fair price; none is cheap, and that is the point. Each has a durable moat: Search and YouTube, 3.6 billion daily users, enterprise switching costs, CUDA, card-payment toll booths, the only EUV machines, leading-edge chipmaking at scale, Costco's 92% renewal rate and Apple's 2.5 billion devices. Most pair high margins and returns on capital with strong growth. … Show more
Johnson & Johnson's valuation does not make sense at a premium to Thermo Fisher and roughly flat to Danaher. @PythiaR, replying, calls J&J a clean story with limited patent-loss risk until the 2030s and a strong pipeline, but expensive at 22x, and prefers medtech such as Stryker. Pharma may simply have been easier to own than medtech given OBBB payer eligibility changes and hospital procedure volume risk, while life sciences has disappointed. x.comÂ
Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, AMD, ServiceNow, Microsoft and ASML are strong enough to serve as decade-long cornerstone holdings. Amazon has AWS, ads, marketplace, Prime and logistics reinforcing each other. Meta reaches about 3.6B daily users with an AI-improved ad engine. Broadcom pairs chip infrastructure with embedded software, both cash-rich. AMD wins with EPYC, Instinct and ROCm. ServiceNow and Microsoft are deeply embedded in daily business, and ASML alone makes EUV systems at scale. x.com … Show more
The Magnificent Seven's growth, fortress balance sheets and central role in the AI buildout now come at multiples that finally make sense. They have barely bent when high-beta names lose 10% in a session; that resilience makes their valuations down here one of the better opportunities in this market. x.comÂ
Microsoft is cheap but not a long-term holding, because it is not growing fast enough while Nvidia is cheaper, growing much faster and better positioned. Microsoft may be re-rating, but the backdrop could also push it to a 15x P/E, so for now it is only a tradable situation. x.comÂ
Long-running revenue growth supports holding Visa, Microsoft, MSCI, Waste Management, Amazon, MercadoLibre, Meta, Moody's, Reddit and Netflix for the next decade. They are 10 "sleep well at night" stocks to buy and hold. Reddit's trailing revenue has accelerated and Netflix's has kept rising; the shaded future bars are estimates. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ