Snowflake and Palantir could spark a reversal in software because they benefit from AI yet sit inside a heavily shorted software ETF. Many hedge funds run long-semis, short-software-ETF trades, and because the ETF is not weighted purely by market cap, smaller names absorbed a lot of short selling and were pushed very low. Snowflake and Palantir carry high weights, so strong results from them could easily blow up the ETF's shorts and turn the sector. x.com 

Semiconductors look set to outperform software. Hedge funds are simultaneously the most overweight semis and most underweight software in a decade, and last year's compression in software valuations made that signal impossible to ignore. Within chips, photonics, memory and CPUs are the favored areas. x.com 

Software valuations are at 10-year lows, with a forward PEG ratio of 1.43 that is cheaper than the S&P 500's, which looks enticing unless software is truly dead. The software ETF is at a key crossroads, still below a bearish trendline in place since October despite a 3% Friday gain; a direct breakout would likely complete the bottoming phase, though it could still pull back to form a fuller inverse head and shoulders. x.com  x.com 

Software's relative strength and sound finances make institutional rotation from semis plausible. It could lead while semis consolidate, despite slow growth at some firms; the market rewards cash flow, healthy balance sheets and manageable debt. Salesforce, ServiceNow, Palantir, Shopify and Workday hold up; SAP's cloud and AI shift, Instacart's massive 10-month base, Veeva's massive five-year base and Atlassian's Stage 2 strength add to the case. Semis may still rally; the view can change. x.com  … Show more

Constellation Software, Microsoft and S&P Global deserve higher prices than they trade at after correcting in June, and current levels could be good long-term entries. Near-term headwinds remain: as long as semiconductors and memory lead the market, SaaS will perform poorly, with many hedge funds and institutions long semis and short SaaS. x.com 

Software is heading for a renaissance as agentic AI transforms everything, and the software ETF IGV is consolidating ahead of a move higher. x.com 

The software selloff will last a while unless software companies invest to accelerate revenue growth, from 10% to 20-25% or from 20% to 30-40%, which will not be easy. Sentiment should change at some point. x.com 

Synopsys still works as a long against a short in the IGV software ETF, which hedges its two big issues: losing share at Intel to Cadence, and being software, which the market currently hates as a factor. x.com 

Institutions are massively accumulating software stocks for the long term, absorbing every new low while price sits at potential resistance. A $9 million-plus call sale at next month's $100 strike and VIX call buying show them hedging a possible rejection at prior highs. If resistance breaks, that buying could fuel the largest software rally ever seen; losing the $102.70 accumulation level would be the next step down. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Constellation Software has no way to benefit from AI and little organic growth, so 21x GAAP EBIT looks fair, with perhaps a downside skew if churn rises across its portfolio in the next five years. The market's negative reaction is rational. Its small vertical software businesses were run financially rather than for product, many still on-prem, with no central AI strategy as software gets cheaper to build. Organic growth was 2% in constant currency; inorganic growth is fundamentally different. … Show more