AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
Institutions are massively accumulating software stocks for the long term, absorbing every new low while price sits at potential resistance. A $9 million-plus call sale at next month's $100 strike and VIX call buying show them hedging a possible rejection at prior highs. If resistance breaks, that buying could fuel the largest software rally ever seen; losing the $102.70 accumulation level would be the next step down. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Software stocks offer massive risk/reward between last week's low and the range high, and the first call buyer since the local high has appeared. A deep-pocketed trader rolled into $1.5M of September 18 $105 calls, small and loose on risk but notable. Monthly and weekly charts are retesting their EMAs and $91.65 support, and the daily looks like sellers are trapped. x.com x.comÂ
Software stocks have a massive bull behind them: $20 million went into calls on the sector, and that bet is off to a strong start. x.comÂ
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF is signaling a mid-term uptrend reversal. The last volatility hole marked the bottom and a first buy signal, and whale accumulation has risen steadily to 69.4%; a trend-reversal candle gave the second buy signal. Momentum bars at 90-92 act as key support, with resistance at $108.5 and $116. x.comÂ
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF is an unappealing way to own software, even with a long-term bullish view on the sector. AOTS has outperformed it because its holdings are actually profitable and have higher revenue and earnings growth. x.comÂ
Software valuations are at 10-year lows, with a forward PEG ratio of 1.43 that is cheaper than the S&P 500's, which looks enticing unless software is truly dead. The software ETF is at a key crossroads, still below a bearish trendline in place since October despite a 3% Friday gain; a direct breakout would likely complete the bottoming phase, though it could still pull back to form a fuller inverse head and shoulders. x.com x.comÂ
Software is heading for a renaissance as agentic AI transforms everything, and the software ETF IGV is consolidating ahead of a move higher. x.comÂ
Palantir looks stretched again, back at about 69 times sales. Michael Burry added March 2027 Palantir puts after covering half his shorts near $107. A further run to $187-$198 would be the better level to lean bearish, and with software stocks running hot for two weeks, the whole trade may top out for a breather. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir should see a positive stock reaction to its earnings report. Michael Burry recently covered a big chunk of his Palantir short, Microsoft performed well after its report last week, and software stocks, where Palantir is among the top holdings of the IGV fund, are turning around. x.comÂ
