Marcos Milla
Former Analyst at the Federal Reserve, ETF/Stock Newsletter Author
The NASA space economy ETF offers a way to own SpaceX before its June 2026 IPO, which is expected to raise $75 billion, nearly three times Saudi Aramco's. SpaceX had $18.5B in 2025 revenue, projects $20-24B in 2026 revenue and $14B in EBITDA, merged with xAI in February and holds 8,200 BTC. The IPO's 30% retail allocation is nearly three times normal for a mega-IPO. x.com
Tema's NASA ETF offers liquid retail exposure to SpaceX ahead of its expected IPO and has beaten XOVR. It holds over 82,000 SpaceX shares, about 10-15% of the fund, via an SPV expected to convert to public shares at an IPO that could value SpaceX near $1.75 trillion. Since inception it has returned 37.32% versus XOVR's 14.85%, despite less SpaceX exposure. It also owns suppliers like Rocket Lab, Filtronic and Intuitive Machines in a space economy projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. x.com
SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.com
SpaceX faces a series of large share unlocks that could add selling supply. Another 911 million shares become eligible for sale tomorrow, followed by 328 million on Oct. 24, 319 million on Oct. 26, 1.3 billion in early November and 797 million in December; Elon's 6.4 billion shares become eligible in June 2027. x.com
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.com
SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.com
Anthropic's compute commitments make SpaceX a major cash cow. Per Sawyer Merritt, Anthropic's IPO filing projects up to $120.5 billion in spending under SpaceXAI agreements through 2029, reaching about $3.1 billion monthly once capacity is delivered in December 2026. Either party can cancel after the initial periods end in early 2027 with 90 days' notice. x.com
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com
SpaceX stock is better left alone until IPO hype, price discovery and insider supply settle, even though SpaceX is an incredible company. Jay Ritter's data show US IPOs from 2001-2024 lagged the market by about 14.7% over three years. SpaceX listed at $135, briefly topped $200 and has already had a massive drawdown, and its first major lockup expiry is making hundreds of millions of shares sellable against an unusually small float. A great company is not a great investment at every price. x.com
SpaceX shares are worth hedging while everyone is hyped, with roughly $400B of unlocks still coming and the Anthropic IPO ahead. Per the FT, via @DeItaone, SpaceX is looking to raise $40B in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips. x.com
SpaceX's IPO looks richly priced at about $1.75T for an unprofitable, founder-controlled, thin-float company, with demand driven by forced index buying rather than confidence. Nasdaq and FTSE Russell added fast-entry rules, making funds such as QQQ mandated buyers, while fully invested index funds must sell existing mega-caps to fund the new weight. The founder keeps about 82.4% of the vote, and 90–180 day lockups will add fresh supply once the forced bid fades. x.com
The Tema Space ETF offers the rare direct SpaceX exposure among pure space-theme ETFs, and a SpaceX IPO should lift the whole fund beyond that holding. Its SpaceX SPV stake, about 8.73%, is valued near a $1.56 trillion SpaceX valuation versus about $2 trillion the market implies. A successful listing should spark the whole space sector, pulling up top holdings AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines, perhaps by 40%. The fund is highly concentrated, with the top three over 44%. x.com
