Tencent owns one of the best closed loops from intent to identity to payment to fulfillment, yet trades as if AI agents will bypass it. Weixin combines 1.44 billion users with chat, payments, Mini Programs and merchant reach, so its Xiaowei agent can hand work to services that already know the user, a distribution and return advantage. About $75 billion of cash and $128 billion of investments against a $491 billion market cap leave the operating business near 7x roughly $40 billion of earnings. … Show more

Tencent needs no catalyst because its EPS keeps compounding steadily, and a long stretch of low prices is ultimately a gift if it buys back a ton of stock. Owning it through Prosus adds a second layer of buybacks at a discount. x.com 

Tencent is starting to look a bit too cheap at 13 times forward earnings. x.com 

Tencent could be the one true winner in Chinese AI because of its monopoly position, while everything else in China gets commoditized. x.com 

Alibaba and Tencent offer exposure to China's versions of Microsoft's AI Foundry and Amazon's Bedrock. Alibaba's Bailian/Model Studio has nearly every piece of that flywheel: Model Studio customers grew 8x YoY in the March 2026 quarter, AI cloud revenue has grown triple digits for 11 straight quarters, and AI is 30% of external cloud revenue. Its ~10% cloud EBITDA margin trails AWS and Microsoft's ~40% but should rise once its land grab locks in clients. Tencent's offering is similar. x.com 

Alibaba offers opportunity at $123 as a front-runner in China's AI buildout, particularly if its AI spending shows real returns and it proves it can compete with the US. Over $56 billion of AI and cloud investment over three years has made current free cash flow negative, like US hyperscalers. Cloud growth is expected near 45%, AI products are already 30% of external cloud revenue, and it holds $38 billion of net cash. Cloud growth, capex and guidance will drive the earnings reaction. x.com 

Tencent's AI push is delivering, with total calls to its Hunyuan Hy3 model up more than 68x from Hy2, and a week after launch Hy3 ranked first on OpenRouter's global model usage leaderboard. That supports the case for WeChat's agent, which calls mini-program APIs directly across 1.38 billion monthly users and is more likely to earn from merchants paying for AI traffic and tools than from consumer subscriptions. x.com 

Alibaba at $110 is one of the most mispriced mega-caps because investors effectively get its AI and cloud business for free. The company is worth about $270B and holds around $70B in cash and liquid investments, while core e-commerce generated almost $5.9B of adjusted EBITA in one quarter, roughly $230B annualized at just 10x. AI and cloud may be Alibaba's most valuable part five years from now. x.com 

Tencent's EV/EBITDA is at its lowest in a very long time, which may make it time to start buying. x.com 

Alibaba's market cap is only about 10x the next 12 months' sales of its cloud business, so the e-commerce behemoth comes for free. The cloud business now has a $24 billion revenue run rate, growing 38% year over year and still accelerating, and it is early days in China. A post the author replies to counters that Alibaba Cloud's margins are only 3-5% versus AWS's 30%, but Google Cloud's margins three to four years ago versus today show how that can change. x.com  x.com