POET Technologies' Lumilens deal looks weak because Lumilens lacks the cash to pay for its purchase orders and needs POET's stock to soar to cash out. Lumilens has nothing in an ultra-competitive optics sector with China. Claims of billions in orders are false; any Amazon order depends on executing several steps first, while Coherent sells about $5B of optics after 30+ years with access to fabs, lasers and ICs. x.com  x.com 

POET Technologies' leadership is very good at hyping the stock, with two such cases in three weeks. It disclosed a new $5 million contract in the SEC filing that announced Marvell's order cancellation, and headlines ran with a "$500 million" Lumilens order that its own release put at $50 million with potential to scale. It is also oddly letting Lumilens buy deep in-the-money POET warrants at greatly reduced prices, not tied to a 30-day VWAP formula, unlike AMD's OpenAI deal. x.com  x.com  x.com 

POET is derisked by confirmation that its customer Lumilens is a large, well-funded hyperscaler supplier. Lumilens emerged from stealth at a $5.5B valuation after raising $700M, with a multi-billion-dollar customer agreement, confirming earlier mapping that it supplies a top-three hyperscaler. POET has a $50M Lumilens purchase order, scalable to $500M, plus contracts with Sivers, on top of its large balance sheet. Lumilens's rise is also great for optical valuations generally. x.com 

POET Technologies' new $400 million registered direct offering is clearly negative for shareholders because it dilutes them by about 20%. It issues about 19.05 million shares to a single institution, roughly 11% dilution, plus three-year warrants for as many more shares at $26.15. POET says the proceeds will fund capacity, acquisitions and R&D; it is unclear whether this ties to its major Lumilens contract, and new customers will matter. x.com 

POET has lost its anchor customer, and the way it happened signals a company that is a mess from the top down. Marvell canceled all its Celestial orders, including initial production units POET had touted since around 2023, after POET's CFO disclosed confidential information in an interview. Years of heavy dilution add to the damage. $430 million of cash plus a $400 million May raise covers years of burn at about $9 million a quarter, so dilution could ease, but with this management, who knows. … Show more

POET's new supply and joint development deal with Lumilens, a $50 million initial order for optical engines and potentially $500 million over five years, places it at the next AI bottleneck. As GPU clusters scale to hundreds of thousands of chips, moving data between them at the speed compute requires becomes the constraint. Copper doesn't get there and photonics does, and POET's optical engine platform sits exactly at that intersection. x.com 

Lumentum requires paying up heavily for a company that is not yet making money. Revenue grew 109% year over year, but it trades at about 25 times annualized sales, and it is growing less than memory makers at ten times their valuation. @ZeekTyt cites Lumentum's CEO expecting to supply only about 30% of requested laser demand as CPO and NPO ramp in 2027, with balance around 2029-30. x.com  x.com 

POET is now an unknown after Night Market Research's short report alleged its partnership story is dead, so stepping aside makes sense until management gives verifiable counter-evidence. Per the report, Celestial AI says POET hasn't come up internally since 2023, Foxconn executives stopped using it two years ago, Luxshare executives never heard of it and its Toronto HQ was empty. The optical interconnect bottleneck is real, but Lumentum and Coherent are the durable picks in the subsector. x.com  … Show more

POET's deal with Lumilens is a $500M validation that could move it from lab tech to commercial scale. The supply and joint development agreement starts with a $50M order for optical engines and could scale to $500M over five years, with samples in late 2026 and volume production in 2027. Its optical interposer integrates electronics and photonics in one chip-scale package, beating power-hungry pluggables. 2026 should be the year of validation, 2027 the year of revenue. x.com 

POET Technologies will likely dilute shareholders soon because it desperately needs to raise cash. That comes after an 80% three-day rally sparked by its CTO confirming an order from Celestial AI. x.com