POET Technologies' Lumilens deal looks weak because Lumilens lacks the cash to pay for its purchase orders and needs POET's stock to soar to cash out. Lumilens has nothing in an ultra-competitive optics sector with China. Claims of billions in orders are false; any Amazon order depends on executing several steps first, while Coherent sells about $5B of optics after 30+ years with access to fabs, lasers and ICs. x.com  x.com 

POET Technologies' market cap rose $850M on a $50M deal, a jump that would require 1,700% margins on the product to justify. x.com 

POET is derisked by confirmation that its customer Lumilens is a large, well-funded hyperscaler supplier. Lumilens emerged from stealth at a $5.5B valuation after raising $700M, with a multi-billion-dollar customer agreement, confirming earlier mapping that it supplies a top-three hyperscaler. POET has a $50M Lumilens purchase order, scalable to $500M, plus contracts with Sivers, on top of its large balance sheet. Lumilens's rise is also great for optical valuations generally. x.com 

POET Technologies' management team is inept, and management quality is make-or-break for investing in a company. POET breached its NDA with Marvell by confirming a purchase order after a short report, and Marvell then cancelled all its Celestial AI orders, per @Kaizen_Investor, sending the stock down almost 50%. x.com  x.com 

Lumentum's 109% year-on-year growth and sold-out capacity through 2029 make selling its AI optics exposure questionable. Bloomberg reported Marvell is in advanced talks to buy it; the appeal depends on the price, especially when holders of an $80 billion Lumentum would become holders of a $320 billion-plus Marvell growing 37%. x.com 

POET's new supply and joint development deal with Lumilens, a $50 million initial order for optical engines and potentially $500 million over five years, places it at the next AI bottleneck. As GPU clusters scale to hundreds of thousands of chips, moving data between them at the speed compute requires becomes the constraint. Copper doesn't get there and photonics does, and POET's optical engine platform sits exactly at that intersection. x.com 

POET looks headed toward zero after Marvell cancelled its Celestial AI orders over a confidentiality breach, costing POET basically its only big customer. With only three or four major end customers, who could use COUPE instead, no revenue and ongoing cash burn, its reputation may never recover. The Marvell contract likely helped its $300M-plus raise, so investors may sue for their money back, and the stock could easily fall below $5. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

The Lumentum merger makes Marvell's path toward a $1 trillion valuation look clearer if it executes well. Jensen Huang had called Marvell the next $1 trillion company. Lumentum's demand is sold for the next two to three years, though whether that gives Marvell an edge remains an open question. Marvell looks like a long-term opportunity, but the route to building a position is still unclear. x.com 

POET Technologies' 47% one-day plunge was self-inflicted, not a technology problem, making it an easy buy. Marvell, which bought Celestial AI in February, pulled Celestial's orders citing a confidentiality breach after POET's CFO confirmed the order on Stocktwits. The stock has since rebounded 211.67% in two weeks. x.com 

Marvell's willingness to heavily dilute its shareholders suggests a takeover would probably be an exceptionally good deal for Lumentum. Marvell must have a strong reason to pursue the rumored purchase so aggressively; Lumentum should accept if offered such a deal. x.com