Oh Come On!
Investor, Venture Capital Background
Intuit's deterministic tax and financial work is protected from AI, because customers will not let AI infer their taxes; the output must work every time and the company must know why it works. AI will instead help Intuit write code, test ideas and lift worker productivity, and it can leverage AI through Mailchimp. x.comÂ
Intuit's dominant market positions, recurring revenue, high switching costs and exceptional cash generation make it a world-class compounder, and the market's AI fears may be offering it at a discount. x.comÂ
Intuit's growing business platform makes pricing the whole firm like slowing TurboTax too pessimistic. It is 54% of revenue, grew 18% in FY26 and is guided to 13-14% in FY27; 15% growth in revenue per customer shows switching costs, though new-customer targets are missed. At ~14x FY27 earnings including stock comp (16x GAAP), shares imply low-single-digit long-term cash flow growth. If the platform grows ~10% and consumer stays flat, EPS should grow ~8-10% a year, beating the index even at 12x. … Show more
Intuit is not very compelling at about 14.5x normalized 2027 EPS after stock-based compensation; maybe it deserves 18x, though there is probably little realistic downside from here. x.comÂ
Nvidia is becoming a share cannibal at a $5T market cap as it accelerates buybacks and dividends. Its new $150B buyback brings its total authorization to $235B, the largest ever. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's path to buying back about half of its shares by 2029 is extremely bullish. Per UBS, cited by @techfund1, free cash flow of about $155B, $225B and $205B for 2027-2029 lays a path to repurchasing about 30% of the company over two years and potentially about half through 2029. UBS expects the market to reward Micron with a much higher P/E as gross margins likely hold above 65-70% through the cycle. Wall Street price targets should now reflect much higher P/Es. x.com x.comÂ
Intuit risks becoming the example of AI commoditizing software, as AI and agents increasingly answer tax and bookkeeping questions instantly, cheaply or for free, removing the need for a costly middle layer. Its large paying base means AI probably won't crush it immediately, but pricing power and users could get squeezed. Its lofty multiples are likely over; it won't go to zero and could still be decent, but it is down 54% this year in a nasty stage-4 downtrend below its 200-day average. x.com … Show more
Intuit is a high-quality compounding software business worth owning while sentiment is weak, thanks to ecosystem advantages across TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks and Mailchimp and AI layered into products with deep customer relationships. It reported strong Q2 FY2026 results and reiterated full-year revenue guidance of $20.997B-$21.186B, about 12-13% growth, with 14-15% non-GAAP EPS growth. x.comÂ
Nvidia's record buyback shows a company confident in its future cash flows. Per a quoted post, Nvidia authorized a $150 billion buyback, the largest single increase in US corporate history, while Jensen Huang called the current cycle the largest infrastructure buildout in human history. x.comÂ
Intuit will survive AI, but its products are among the most vulnerable to it, and AI should take a massive chunk of its business. It relied heavily on customers staying for convenience, and it has already admitted customer spending is tightening. Revenue growth has slowed to 10%, and the 17% staff layoff looks like an effort to offset lost future business. It may not be a terrible buy here, but it won't return near historic valuations, and better SaaS options exist. x.comÂ
NVIDIA's record buyback signals management sees the stock as undervalued and buying it as a good use of cash. It announced a new $150 billion authorization, bringing the total to $235 billion, with its market cap above $5.5 trillion. x.comÂ