AST SpaceMobile's D2D prospects weaken as telcos look to Amazon and Ligado may give up spectrum. Telcos see Amazon as their most realistic potential savior, though their JV seems poised to sign MOUs with both. People consulted expect Amazon to buy Viasat mainly for international spectrum; US capacity and timing remain uncertain. AST's payments do not cover Ligado's Viasat dues, so Ligado may settle with the US for auction credits and surrender spectrum rights, leaving AST stranded. x.com 

Viasat may be a spectrum-sale or takeover candidate. Heavy call flow over the last few weeks suggests someone is positioning for either outcome, which fits the recent Iridium and Globalstar buyouts. x.com 

The EU's planned split of expiring 2 GHz S-band rights among new uses leaves Viasat at high risk of getting nothing. Its current 15+15 MHz allocation expires in May 2027; one 10+10 MHz block is expected for IRIS2, another for a European carrier venture working with AST SpaceMobile, and the open block is likelier to go to SpaceX despite political concerns. No future awards have been made. x.com  x.com 

Viasat's spectrum makes it either a buyer or a target as satellite consolidation spotlights spectrum, with Rocket Lab buying Iridium for $8 billion and a bigger SpaceX looming. It is forming Equitas with Space42, a shared L- and S-band venture targeting 2029 service while it keeps its spectrum rights. Survival, not growth, drove the re-rating, with a record $4.1B backlog and nearly $600M of annual free cash flow. Oppenheimer's $140 target rests largely on spectrum. Sentiment: cautiously bullish. … Show more

Brazil's new S-band authorization adds valuable rights to AST SpaceMobile's carrier-led broadband. Anatel assigned 15+15 MHz for investment and deployment, alongside secondary use of up to 10+10 MHz of partners' 700 MHz in licensed areas, with 200M-plus potential subscribers. SpaceX paid $22B for EchoStar's global S-band rights. In Europe, a carrier venture is expected to win 10+10 MHz using AST, but awards are pending and SpaceX is likelier to win the open block. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Viasat looks attractive because its earlier selloff showed textbook accumulation alongside inefficient selling. The stock was 25% below its swing high after about 100 days when that pattern was flagged; the bullish view still favors adding. x.com 

Amazon's Leo network and Globalstar's spectrum could be the most underpriced option inside its stock if the Starlink rival works. While attention focuses on AWS capex, Amazon is building Leo; StockSavvyShay says initial service is on track for year-end and the Globalstar acquisition is planned. x.com 

Anti-SpaceX demand could bring AST SpaceMobile and Amazon a lot of business. If Avery Sullivan's interpretation of AST's E-band filing as a push into consumer broadband is right, that would be huge for AST. x.com 

Brazil's spectrum access makes AST SpaceMobile's carrier-led expansion one of its most important developments this year. Anatel authorized 30 MHz of S-band and secondary use of 20 MHz of partners' 700 MHz spectrum; AST plans four gateways. These are not owned terrestrial rights. AST remains one of the most compelling long-term space opportunities, but revenue depends on launches, integration, adoption and viable sharing despite Starlink competition. x.com 

AST SpaceMobile faces growing satellite-cellular competition beyond Starlink Mobile, which, per Starlink, agreed to acquire a nationwide US low-band spectrum portfolio. A later 5,105-satellite direct-to-cell system from Amazon tied to Globalstar is also a threat. AST's best chance is giving AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile a fighting chance against them; that reliable Starlink Mobile service is a long way off doesn't matter. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com