Anp🅰️nman
AST SpaceMobile Research
The EU's planned split of expiring 2 GHz S-band rights among new uses leaves Viasat at high risk of getting nothing. Its current 15+15 MHz allocation expires in May 2027; one 10+10 MHz block is expected for IRIS2, another for a European carrier venture working with AST SpaceMobile, and the open block is likelier to go to SpaceX despite political concerns. No future awards have been made. x.com x.com
Viasat's airline connectivity business is under threat from AST SpaceMobile. AT&T, Verizon and soon T-Mobile could deliver inflight broadband directly to passengers' phones through AST using Ligado's midband spectrum. A redacted AST regulatory filing references a use case at 30,000 feet with peak download rates near 200 Mbps. That would also remove the need for a Starlink airline connection. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's D2D prospects weaken as telcos look to Amazon and Ligado may give up spectrum. Telcos see Amazon as their most realistic potential savior, though their JV seems poised to sign MOUs with both. People consulted expect Amazon to buy Viasat mainly for international spectrum; US capacity and timing remain uncertain. AST's payments do not cover Ligado's Viasat dues, so Ligado may settle with the US for auction credits and surrender spectrum rights, leaving AST stranded. x.com
Europe's push for satellite independence as Starlink expands could make AST SpaceMobile one of its most attractive alternatives and a major beneficiary. Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone, all AST partners, signed a letter of intent to explore a joint spectrum bid; AST cites over 500 million European subscribers. No spectrum purchase or exclusive AST contract is secured; regulatory approval, commercial agreements, deployment and cash flow must follow. x.com x.com
Viasat could be a takeover target for its roughly 68MHz of scarce global L-band spectrum after Rocket Lab's Iridium deal began a revaluation of space-communications firms. The spectrum suits direct-to-device, IoT and military use, which SpaceX and Amazon need. Viasat is far larger and more indebted than Iridium, so a partial sale or alliance is likelier than a full buyout. Odds are about 40-50% for SpaceX and 20-30% for Amazon, low near term; Barclays and Barron's speculation drove the rally. … Show more
Brazil's spectrum access makes AST SpaceMobile's carrier-led expansion one of its most important developments this year. Anatel authorized 30 MHz of S-band and secondary use of 20 MHz of partners' 700 MHz spectrum; AST plans four gateways. These are not owned terrestrial rights. AST remains one of the most compelling long-term space opportunities, but revenue depends on launches, integration, adoption and viable sharing despite Starlink competition. x.com
European carriers seeking to counter Starlink could channel investment toward AST SpaceMobile; money can flow to both sides. Per Bloomberg, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Vodafone and Telefonica are exploring a satellite consortium, but have not chosen a satellite provider. Vodafone already has an AST joint venture. x.com
Viasat may be a spectrum-sale or takeover candidate. Heavy call flow over the last few weeks suggests someone is positioning for either outcome, which fits the recent Iridium and Globalstar buyouts. x.com
AST SpaceMobile looks set to win as European mobile operators seek an alternative to Starlink. Bloomberg reports that some of Europe's biggest operators have agreed to form a consortium to bid for satellite spectrum and offer direct-to-mobile service to counter Starlink. x.com
Proposed FCC rules to more than double SCS spectrum are wildly bullish for AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX, the only two SCS license holders. AST trades below the value of its Ligado rights; its agreed deal has almost no chance of FCC blockage despite objections. AST could return to its highs sooner rather than later if the November 9 call clarifies production and Blue Origin keeps moving New Glenn toward the pad. New Glenn is the value unlock. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Viasat's spectrum makes it either a buyer or a target as satellite consolidation spotlights spectrum, with Rocket Lab buying Iridium for $8 billion and a bigger SpaceX looming. It is forming Equitas with Space42, a shared L- and S-band venture targeting 2029 service while it keeps its spectrum rights. Survival, not growth, drove the re-rating, with a record $4.1B backlog and nearly $600M of annual free cash flow. Oppenheimer's $140 target rests largely on spectrum. Sentiment: cautiously bullish. … Show more
AST SpaceMobile has more of a moat abroad where Starlink cannot operate. The Ukraine-Starlink dispute is likely to keep Starlink out of the EU and other markets. In the US, the thesis rests completely on mobile network operators that appear to need AST to fight Starlink. AST never had an overall moat, and it should be further ahead by now. x.com x.com
