Rocket Lab and SpaceX are solid long-term holdings for space exposure. Rocket Lab's nearly $20-per-share gain this week came from the SpaceX IPO and a strong macro day. x.comÂ
Cole Grinde
Stock & Options Investor, Dividends/Value/Fundamentals, Tesla
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks have lost their catalyst now that SpaceX is public. For a year the basket was a bet on when the SpaceX IPO would happen; it listed Friday, up 19% at $2.1 trillion, the biggest IPO in history, and the air came out. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Satellogic and BlackSky, green for months, have all flipped to SuperTrend downtrends. That is not the sector breaking but buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news. x.comÂ
Space stocks are an easy trade into the SpaceX IPO, with retail tailwinds making every dip a buy. Rocket Lab is the example: it posted a record quarter and kept its Neutron launch on track for 2026. x.comÂ
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's $3B at-the-market offering shows it needs investor cash because it has no real earnings or path to profitability, and it should have raised $10-15B while the window lasts. Selling stock at such a high valuation is the only way to sustain the next 18-24 months, and the coming SpaceX IPO will most likely be the sell event for the entire space sector. x.com x.comÂ
Listed space stocks such as Satellogic, BlackSky, Voyager, Redwire, Intuitive Machines, Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are the plays ahead of the SpaceX IPO. AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are favorites and still look healthy on the charts despite recent pullbacks. @sunxliao notes the group ranges from about $0.7B to $39B in market cap versus a roughly $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO valuation, a gap he expects to deliver big returns in coming months. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is the space stock still priced like a growth stock, and it is building its larger Neutron rocket to compete directly with SpaceX. It has over 70 successful launches and active contracts with the US Space Force and NASA, and Trump signed an executive order in December designating space a core national security priority. SpaceX is the obvious space pick. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's price bets on the most optimistic version of its results a decade out while it is still losing money, so the market is pricing a story rather than the company. Narrative now earns a premium and earnings do not, as with IonQ and AI-server-labeled Dell and HPE, and one quarterly miss means exit. This can last a long time in liquid, risk-on markets, as 1999 dot-coms and 2021 SPACs showed, so a drop is not imminent; buyers now are buying how long sentiment lasts. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab looks set for a major comeback as SpaceX, the main reason the space sector sold off, starts performing better. The same failed head-and-shoulders pattern that preceded Rocket Lab's parabolic 2024 run has formed again, with the stock bottoming exactly at the neckline, and SpaceX's improvement is already showing in other space stocks. x.comÂ