Space stocks are an easy trade into the SpaceX IPO, with retail tailwinds making every dip a buy. Rocket Lab is the example: it posted a record quarter and kept its Neutron launch on track for 2026. x.comÂ
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Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks lost expected support when the S&P committee rejected fast-tracking SpaceX into the index, removing forced passive buying, while funds sell tech to raise cash for next Friday's SpaceX IPO. Rocket Lab's $150 looks like the top, with a likely lower high, perhaps dropping to $100 on Monday before rebounding to $120-130. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab and SpaceX are solid long-term holdings for space exposure. Rocket Lab's nearly $20-per-share gain this week came from the SpaceX IPO and a strong macro day. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
Space and defense stocks such as Rocket Lab, Kratos and AeroVironment warrant skepticism after a big run because the sector doesn't generate profits the way other sectors do. Many of the announced deals are burdens that take a long time to execute. Excitement around Rocket Lab could return before or after its Neutron launch. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is the space stock still priced like a growth stock, and it is building its larger Neutron rocket to compete directly with SpaceX. It has over 70 successful launches and active contracts with the US Space Force and NASA, and Trump signed an executive order in December designating space a core national security priority. SpaceX is the obvious space pick. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's growing Space Systems business positions it to provide more than launches for the space economy. It generated $189.5M in Q2, 81% of revenue; if its pending Iridium acquisition closes, it would gain a global satellite communications network. At about $51, this is one of the most compelling long-term opportunities in the space sector over 3-5 years, provided it keeps executing. Neutron's launch has slipped to 2027, and execution risks remain. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks have lost their catalyst now that SpaceX is public. For a year the basket was a bet on when the SpaceX IPO would happen; it listed Friday, up 19% at $2.1 trillion, the biggest IPO in history, and the air came out. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Satellogic and BlackSky, green for months, have all flipped to SuperTrend downtrends. That is not the sector breaking but buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab looks set for a major comeback as SpaceX, the main reason the space sector sold off, starts performing better. The same failed head-and-shoulders pattern that preceded Rocket Lab's parabolic 2024 run has formed again, with the stock bottoming exactly at the neckline, and SpaceX's improvement is already showing in other space stocks. x.comÂ