DekmarTrades
Stock Day Trader & Educator, Live Trading
Tesla's self-driving, which no other carmaker can match, may be one big test for its Optimus humanoid robot, making the stock possibly the greatest dip buy before the next generational opportunity. Its cars can see where they are, spotting pedestrians and construction, after years spent perfecting machines that see and fit into society, and over $10 billion has gone into humanoid development in two years. The stock is down 30% this year. x.comÂ
Tesla is back: Q3 deliveries of 486,532 beat consensus of roughly 462,000 to 464,000. Model 3/Y production of 457,387 came in below the 481,279 estimate. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's Q3 delivery beat supports a bounce. Total deliveries were 487K versus 464K expected and Model 3/Y deliveries 478K versus 462K, though Model 3/Y production of 457K missed the 481K estimate and other-model deliveries were 7.0K versus 9.7K. Tesla also deployed 13.7GWh of energy storage in Q3. A hold above $350 could bring $355-360. x.comÂ
Tesla's Q3 earnings beat came from tariff refunds, not operations. The Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling let Tesla book $786M in refunds, less $339M owed to storage customers: $447M or 62% of Q3 operating income. Without that, GAAP EPS was $0.12 versus $0.20 estimated and operating margin 1.0%. Gross profit is not keeping pace with spending. Tesla trades at 500x trailing earnings versus 32x for the Mag-6 despite falling Q3 revenue, EBIT down 56% year on year and reduced capex. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Tesla's FSD continues to drive sales as its physical AI strategy takes shape. Attach rates top 75% of North American deliveries, active subscriptions have reached 1.74 million, up 67% year on year, and Optimus production has begun. Those developments also dovetail with the strategic fit of a SpaceX merger. x.comÂ
Tesla's growing Cybercab robotaxi registrations set up the next burn for short sellers. Texas registrations rose by 81 today to 544, per the state registry data shown in the chart. x.comÂ
Tesla's falling energy and storage revenue undercuts what bulls call its next growth case. In Q3, that revenue fell 16% year over year; auto revenue fell 3%, operating income 56%, GAAP net income 43%, GAAP EPS 44% and free cash flow 62%. These terrible results make $500 a share look unlikely, even though the stock has not fallen 20%. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's stronger gross margin and automotive revenue suggest its car business is healthier than bears expected. Gross margin was 19.6% versus 17.8% expected; automotive revenue beat by over $700M, following 486,532 deliveries versus roughly 462,000 expected. Total revenue missed slightly, likely outside autos. Cybercab, unsupervised FSD and Optimus remain the key call tests. Overweight, $697 target with 80% upside. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's 6.75% drop after exceptionally positive delivery data is an unreasonable reaction and a possible buying opportunity. Q2 2026 deliveries of 480,126 beat analyst expectations by 18.3%, the biggest beat in years of tracking, and rose 34.1% quarter on quarter and 25.0% year on year; year-to-date sales are up 16.3%. The stock still fell on a flat Nasdaq, just as it reacted negatively to strong Q3 2025 deliveries; such reactions are seldom reasonable. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's deteriorating earnings and automotive revenue undermine its growth story. In Q3 2026, automotive revenue fell 3% year over year, operating income fell 56%, and diluted EPS fell 44%, while total revenue was flat. x.comÂ
Tesla's mid-term uptrend is supported by whale accumulation now exceeding 78% and a bullish red ribbon that outweighs short-term candle signals. The last volatility hole at $300 marked the cycle bottom, and previously highlighted momentum bars have flipped into support. Tesla needs to clear the next bar at $420 to unlock further price momentum. x.comÂ