Roland Pircher
Tesla Investor Since 2017, Sales/Financial Data Visualization
Tesla's 6.75% drop after exceptionally positive delivery data is an unreasonable reaction and a possible buying opportunity. Q2 2026 deliveries of 480,126 beat analyst expectations by 18.3%, the biggest beat in years of tracking, and rose 34.1% quarter on quarter and 25.0% year on year; year-to-date sales are up 16.3%. The stock still fell on a flat Nasdaq, just as it reacted negatively to strong Q3 2025 deliveries; such reactions are seldom reasonable. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's stronger gross margin and automotive revenue suggest its car business is healthier than bears expected. Gross margin was 19.6% versus 17.8% expected; automotive revenue beat by over $700M, following 486,532 deliveries versus roughly 462,000 expected. Total revenue missed slightly, likely outside autos. Cybercab, unsupervised FSD and Optimus remain the key call tests. Overweight, $697 target with 80% upside. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla is blasting off on strong production and delivery numbers. x.comÂ
Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's seasonally strong fourth quarter makes shorting the stock here unattractive. A new bullish trend still needs a clear breakout above its 200-day moving average and price-channel resistance for confirmation. x.comÂ
Tesla's growth across multiple businesses makes the Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF's decline this week another opportunity to buy the dip. Vehicle sales, energy demand, Supercharging, FSD, services, Robotaxi and Semi are gaining momentum; Tesla is growing, not declining. x.comÂ
Tesla's falling energy and storage revenue undercuts what bulls call its next growth case. In Q3, that revenue fell 16% year over year; auto revenue fell 3%, operating income 56%, GAAP net income 43%, GAAP EPS 44% and free cash flow 62%. These terrible results make $500 a share look unlikely, even though the stock has not fallen 20%. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's growing Cybercab robotaxi registrations set up the next burn for short sellers. Texas registrations rose by 81 today to 544, per the state registry data shown in the chart. x.comÂ
Tesla's FSD continues to drive sales as its physical AI strategy takes shape. Attach rates top 75% of North American deliveries, active subscriptions have reached 1.74 million, up 67% year on year, and Optimus production has begun. Those developments also dovetail with the strategic fit of a SpaceX merger. x.comÂ
Tesla's valuation is too stretched to justify buying now. Slava cites a 189x forward P/E, falling Q3 deliveries, a 1.4% operating margin and negative free cash flow; other investments look preferable. x.comÂ
Tesla's growing autonomy usage strengthens its case as one of the best plays on autonomous vehicles, robotics, EVs and energy. Q3 FSD subscriptions rose 67% year over year and robotaxi miles increased eightfold quarter over quarter; revenue was $28.05B and EPS of $0.48 beat expectations. FSD subscriptions are starting to contribute to revenue, though still relatively little. Licensing FSD to other automakers could expand the opportunity if it happens. x.com x.comÂ
