Varun Takkar
Stock & Options Trading, Technical Analysis, Trading Community
Heavy put buying in Micron could set up a squeeze of bearish whales by market makers and a sharp rebound tomorrow or later this week. The puts closed in the red today; a cool CPI print tomorrow would add pressure on those buyers. The broader outlook can still be bearish, and this is a contrarian thought, not a trade alert. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Micron's blowout Q4 and strong dip buying set it up for a breakout. Revenue reached $54.23B, up 379%, versus $51.1B expected; adjusted EPS was $33.42 versus $31.50, and Q1 FY27 guidance of $61.5B at the midpoint crushed the $57.2B consensus. Analysts raised targets as high as $1,900-$2,100. The stock reversed an early 4% dip on 45.5M+ shares to close near $1,097, signaling accumulation. A daily close above $1,100 would break the wedge, opening a path to $1,200-$1,250+. x.comÂ
Micron's $900 floor now coincides with its biggest near-term put concentration. The October 16 options map shows about $21M in put bets at $900; buy only if that level holds or wait for a close back above $947. The target is $1,000 by October 30, with a daily close below $899.95 breaking support. x.comÂ
Micron is drawing large bullish options flow, including a $20.3 million put seller and $3 million going into calls. x.com x.comÂ
Buyers rushing into Micron's gap-down open show fear is still too limited for a sustainable low. They bought hand over fist, while the equity put/call ratio stood at 0.75; significantly more pain and fear are needed. x.com x.comÂ
Widespread bearish calls for Micron to plunge to $500 on a head-and-shoulders pattern are a contrarian bullish sign, since when the majority turn bearish, buy orders pile up at lower levels. x.comÂ
Micron customers are locking up supply through 2030, a very interesting signal for Micron and the broader AI trade. After a disappointing open following Micron's report, which @CKCapitalxx noted came despite a cool PCE print, any dip would be a great chance to buy. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's indecision after a 40% rally off the low suggests short-term speculators may be exhausted. Despite unprecedented institutional buying and a reclaim of its VPOC and AVWAP, the stock is not acting strong, mirroring the bearish semiconductor ETF setup earlier in the week, and it faces monthly resistance. A $90M bearish risk reversal on the October 16 $980 strike, later added to by $20M, reads as a hedge. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Micron's options structure points higher, with a first short- to medium-term target of $1,100. Its moving averages remain in bullish expansion, gamma is skewed upward and call positioning extends to $1,300. The setup favors waiting for consolidation or a pullback to find entries. x.comÂ
Micron is still cheap and likely to creep higher, but exposure should be smaller because the bull-bear debate and massive passive forced buying and selling make the trade highly volatile. x.comÂ
Micron faces a 'gravity' setup that will be very hard to break without forecasts and earnings beating expectations by 100%. During the dotcom bubble, Micron hit its 0.618 Fibonacci level as the yield curve uninverted, just as it is doing now: the 10-year/3-month spread is +117 bps, the 30-year yield is nearing 6.0%, HYG has broken its 50-period moving average and LQD looks set to fall toward 2008 lows. x.com x.comÂ
Micron looks set to extend its post-earnings rebound as semiconductors and AI take the market lead. It made a massive mean reversion off its 21-day average and reclaimed $1,050 after earnings; with dealers positioned for $1,150, that level looks likely tomorrow or next week, and $1,250 is on the table. x.comÂ
