Art of Speculation
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Micron is trying to base after its sharp correction, with technical and options support converging near $900. Its 10-, 20- and 50-day averages all sit around $900, where the largest gamma position also lies, and substantial longer-dated buying in $1,000 calls shows bets on a clear breakout. Holding the $730-735 low and breaking above the 21-day EMA and $925 would give the AI infrastructure group a chance to restart. x.comÂ
Micron's $900 floor now coincides with its biggest near-term put concentration. The October 16 options map shows about $21M in put bets at $900; buy only if that level holds or wait for a close back above $947. The target is $1,000 by October 30, with a daily close below $899.95 breaking support. x.comÂ
Micron looks set to extend its post-earnings rebound as semiconductors and AI take the market lead. It made a massive mean reversion off its 21-day average and reclaimed $1,050 after earnings; with dealers positioned for $1,150, that level looks likely tomorrow or next week, and $1,250 is on the table. x.comÂ
Micron's move is parabolic and should see a 50% or larger correction over the next few years. The stock has hit its 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the 2000 high at $1,200+, an 18x return in under 18 months and 120x in 10 years, with many speculators chasing it. Much of the rally is earnings driven, but the market is already pricing in future growth, and price can stay irrational for a while. Holders should trim 50-65% or sell in-the-money covered calls out to end-2027 or early 2028. x.comÂ
Micron looks like the next memory name to break out, with buyers still defending the $1,035 level despite a muted earnings reaction. The numbers and forward growth were great, and similar choppy consolidations in Marvell, Super Micro, NetApp, Palantir and HPE have kept their uptrends working. SK hynix is also looking to break out. x.comÂ
Widespread bearish calls for Micron to plunge to $500 on a head-and-shoulders pattern are a contrarian bullish sign, since when the majority turn bearish, buy orders pile up at lower levels. x.comÂ
Buyers rushing into Micron's gap-down open show fear is still too limited for a sustainable low. They bought hand over fist, while the equity put/call ratio stood at 0.75; significantly more pain and fear are needed. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's clear earnings beat points to $180-200 of EPS in 2027, and 16 SCA contracts give enough long-term visibility to push the sell side to raise its multiple from 5x toward 10x. That supports a $1,400 target now, 7.5x the $190 midpoint, and $2,000 in the long run. x.com x.comÂ
Micron looks like it has to be at the top. The level in question would make it a $5 trillion company, in reply to a post noting that $1 trillion companies seemed wild only about five years ago. x.com x.comÂ
Micron can run further into the first couple of weeks of September before options expiry after a textbook breakout. The setup coiled at the 9/21 EMAs on a volume-profile shelf after a huge-volume capitulation candle on July 29, with declining volume in consolidation. Nvidia and Broadcom earnings supported the sector narrative, and market-maker gamma positioning pointed to $1,000 as the likely target. x.comÂ