The Traveling Trader
Founder of The Traveling Trader, Market-Open Livestreams
Micron can run further into the first couple of weeks of September before options expiry after a textbook breakout. The setup coiled at the 9/21 EMAs on a volume-profile shelf after a huge-volume capitulation candle on July 29, with declining volume in consolidation. Nvidia and Broadcom earnings supported the sector narrative, and market-maker gamma positioning pointed to $1,000 as the likely target. x.comÂ
Micron's options structure points higher, with a first short- to medium-term target of $1,100. Its moving averages remain in bullish expansion, gamma is skewed upward and call positioning extends to $1,300. The setup favors waiting for consolidation or a pullback to find entries. x.comÂ
Micron looks set to extend its post-earnings rebound as semiconductors and AI take the market lead. It made a massive mean reversion off its 21-day average and reclaimed $1,050 after earnings; with dealers positioned for $1,150, that level looks likely tomorrow or next week, and $1,250 is on the table. x.comÂ
Micron could fall if Nvidia launches new integrations with Groq at its conference next week, as expected, which would reduce reliance on DRAM. That likely explains the highly unusual $18.2 million of Micron puts expiring next week, flagged by @CheddarFlow. x.comÂ
Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's $900 floor now coincides with its biggest near-term put concentration. The October 16 options map shows about $21M in put bets at $900; buy only if that level holds or wait for a close back above $947. The target is $1,000 by October 30, with a daily close below $899.95 breaking support. x.comÂ
Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's surging memory revenue points to a supercycle. Its segment and NAND revenue charts show a sharp recent acceleration, while the stock tests its rising 30-week average. x.comÂ
Micron's revenue grew faster than its stock over the past year, leaving it cheaper on trailing earnings. Quarterly revenue rose from $11.3B to $54.2B, while the stock rose from about $198 to $878 and trailing P/E fell from roughly 24x to 11.6x. x.comÂ
Micron faces a 'gravity' setup that will be very hard to break without forecasts and earnings beating expectations by 100%. During the dotcom bubble, Micron hit its 0.618 Fibonacci level as the yield curve uninverted, just as it is doing now: the 10-year/3-month spread is +117 bps, the 30-year yield is nearing 6.0%, HYG has broken its 50-period moving average and LQD looks set to fall toward 2008 lows. x.com x.comÂ
Rapid revenue growth against forward valuations makes Nvidia and Micron additional calculated risks after the selloff, alongside Meta, Broadcom, IREN, Vistra, Nokia and Oracle. Nvidia grew revenue 106% and guides Q3 to $108B, plus or minus 2%, at 17.5x forward earnings; Micron grew revenue 379% to $54.2B, guides $61.5B next quarter and trades at 5x. The other six retain their growth, contracted-demand or customer-order cases. x.comÂ
