Donald Dean
Economist & Technical Analyst, Fibonacci/Gamma Trading
Micron's $900 floor now coincides with its biggest near-term put concentration. The October 16 options map shows about $21M in put bets at $900; buy only if that level holds or wait for a close back above $947. The target is $1,000 by October 30, with a daily close below $899.95 breaking support. x.comÂ
Micron's options positioning maps a six-month range with a floor at $800 and a ceiling at $1,000. The biggest bets include about $3.1B of September $600 puts, $1.1B of September $800 puts and $1.1B of September $1,100 calls, with a put/call ratio of 1.24. Over the next four weeks, holding above $900 opens a path to $950 and then $1,000, which acts as a magnet rather than a chase; losing $900 breaks the map. x.comÂ
Micron's options structure points higher, with a first short- to medium-term target of $1,100. Its moving averages remain in bullish expansion, gamma is skewed upward and call positioning extends to $1,300. The setup favors waiting for consolidation or a pullback to find entries. x.comÂ
Micron looks set to extend its post-earnings rebound as semiconductors and AI take the market lead. It made a massive mean reversion off its 21-day average and reclaimed $1,050 after earnings; with dealers positioned for $1,150, that level looks likely tomorrow or next week, and $1,250 is on the table. x.comÂ
Buyers rushing into Micron's gap-down open show fear is still too limited for a sustainable low. They bought hand over fist, while the equity put/call ratio stood at 0.75; significantly more pain and fear are needed. x.com x.comÂ
Heavy put buying in Micron could set up a squeeze of bearish whales by market makers and a sharp rebound tomorrow or later this week. The puts closed in the red today; a cool CPI print tomorrow would add pressure on those buyers. The broader outlook can still be bearish, and this is a contrarian thought, not a trade alert. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Micron is drawing large bullish options flow, including a $20.3 million put seller and $3 million going into calls. x.com x.comÂ
Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com x.comÂ
Widespread bearish calls for Micron to plunge to $500 on a head-and-shoulders pattern are a contrarian bullish sign, since when the majority turn bearish, buy orders pile up at lower levels. x.comÂ
Micron's valuation looks ridiculous given the street's eight-year EPS estimates, even with a projected 2028 earnings peak and subsequent decline. At under $900, it trades at 5.09 times this year's expected EPS of $176.55. If consensus plays out, 2027-34 EPS would total $921.56, more than the share price; if analysts are wrong about when EPS peaks, Micron would look even cheaper. x.comÂ
Micron's indecision after a 40% rally off the low suggests short-term speculators may be exhausted. Despite unprecedented institutional buying and a reclaim of its VPOC and AVWAP, the stock is not acting strong, mirroring the bearish semiconductor ETF setup earlier in the week, and it faces monthly resistance. A $90M bearish risk reversal on the October 16 $980 strike, later added to by $20M, reads as a hedge. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Micron can run further into the first couple of weeks of September before options expiry after a textbook breakout. The setup coiled at the 9/21 EMAs on a volume-profile shelf after a huge-volume capitulation candle on July 29, with declining volume in consolidation. Nvidia and Broadcom earnings supported the sector narrative, and market-maker gamma positioning pointed to $1,000 as the likely target. x.comÂ
