Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
GFL Environmental is a high-quality stock worth holding indefinitely, which is why the take-private news is unwelcome: when quality stocks stay cheap long enough, private-equity buyers circle. Which firms are interested is unknown, despite mentions of Apollo, Blackstone and KKR. A buyout would interrupt long-term compounding with taxes. x.comÂ
GFL Environmental is getting acquired at around $50. Call buying in the stock over the last few weeks has been egregious. x.comÂ
Crocs is cheap enough to be a takeover target for Deckers or private equity: 2026 EPS guidance of $13.20-13.75 puts it at about 7.3x adjusted earnings, and it bought back 10% of shares over the past year. It beat and raised, with the Crocs brand down 1% and HeyDude down 13% in a reset. Skechers was bought out last year at 8.6x EBITDA, equal to $144 for Crocs. A 30-40% premium could suffice since management lost credibility after overpaying for HeyDude. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Waste Management is still not cheap for a slow-growth company and needs to fall roughly another 10%. The shares became overvalued and, despite being only about 12% off their high, are just returning toward fair value, against @Mindset4Money_X's view that the stock is the cheapest it has been in a long time. x.comÂ
Waste Management's premium multiple rests on free cash flow growth, not its roughly 10% EPS growth. WM expects free cash flow to rise about 29% this year to around $3.8 billion, and it trades at 23.9x P/FCF versus 25.5x historically, with a forecast 25% annual total return and a target around $260. Its hard-to-replicate landfills, transfer stations and routes give it pricing power; it expects about $2 billion of buybacks and raised its dividend 14.5%. Multiple compression is the main risk. x.com … Show more
Gamma Communications has received a takeover bid, another case of a UK small cap undervalued by public markets being taken by private buyers. x.comÂ
