Late Stage Capitalism
Physician, Long-Term Stock Investor with 30 Years of Experience
Waste Management is still not cheap for a slow-growth company and needs to fall roughly another 10%. The shares became overvalued and, despite being only about 12% off their high, are just returning toward fair value, against @Mindset4Money_X's view that the stock is the cheapest it has been in a long time. x.comÂ
Waste Connections earns local-monopoly economics by dominating secondary and rural markets rather than big cities. Route density, exclusive franchise agreements, strategically located disposal capacity and a BBB+ balance sheet underpin the model. It trades at 28.7x earnings versus 30.2x historically, about a 5% discount, with eight straight years of dividend growth and an 11.4% 10-year EPS CAGR. The 12-month total return estimate is about 25%. x.comÂ
Sleepy, safe long-term market beaters such as Waste Connections, Progressive, Casella Waste Systems and Arthur J. Gallagher look set for another phase of outperformance. Years of sideways valuation compression while impressive growth continued have set them up, and a stealth rally has begun in recent weeks. Progressive beats the S&P and is the ultimate safety stock when times turn bad, and a time will come when everyone wishes they had bought it rather than chasing chip stocks. x.com x.comÂ
Waste Management's premium multiple rests on free cash flow growth, not its roughly 10% EPS growth. WM expects free cash flow to rise about 29% this year to around $3.8 billion, and it trades at 23.9x P/FCF versus 25.5x historically, with a forecast 25% annual total return and a target around $260. Its hard-to-replicate landfills, transfer stations and routes give it pricing power; it expects about $2 billion of buybacks and raised its dividend 14.5%. Multiple compression is the main risk. x.com … Show more
Waste Connections is the ultimate safety stock for bad times and outperformed the S&P 500 over 10 years until recent months, so it is a buy while it trails, as long as fundamentals and thesis hold. Investors chasing chip stocks treat it like garbage, but assuming the last five years predict the next five is likely to hurt. Judging waste consolidators on P/E alone misses the fundamentals that matter. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Waste Connections is a stock to buy. x.comÂ
Waste Management is arguably the most durable name on the list because trash has to be collected in all economic conditions and cannot be put off. It has pricing power, an immense moat and an insulated industry, with decent growth, and it is becoming stronger than ever while the market pays it little attention. x.comÂ
Costco already looks quite overvalued, with a forward P/E that is crazy high. x.comÂ
Waste Management is one of the best defensive compounders in the market. x.comÂ
Waste Management delivers market-beating returns with half the market's volatility. Its ROIC is 12.0% versus a 10.1% peer average, total return since 2016 is 399% versus 193% for the Dow, it has raised its dividend for 23 straight years, and its beta is 0.56. x.comÂ
Waste Management, Republic Services and Waste Connections own a moat money can't buy: permission to run landfills. US landfills fell from 7,924 in 1988 to roughly 1,500 today while garbage grows every year, and local resistance blocks new permits, so scarcity brings pricing power. The big three in the $130 billion North American market don't fight each other; they absorb the $68 billion held by small haulers. Waste Connections wins by targeting exclusive franchise and rural markets. x.com x.com … Show more
