Waste Management's premium multiple rests on free cash flow growth, not its roughly 10% EPS growth. WM expects free cash flow to rise about 29% this year to around $3.8 billion, and it trades at 23.9x P/FCF versus 25.5x historically, with a forecast 25% annual total return and a target around $260. Its hard-to-replicate landfills, transfer stations and routes give it pricing power; it expects about $2 billion of buybacks and raised its dividend 14.5%. Multiple compression is the main risk. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ

