Flow God
Options-Flow Commentary
Tesla's options flow points to a bullish or neutral outlook, with a $15M put seller positioned out to October. Selling puts signals an expectation that the stock stays bullish or neutral through expiration, while leaving lots of room for error and drawdown. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla screens bullish on Aion's per-ticker models, which put the odds of a rise at 74% over 3 days, 81% over 10 and 87% over 20, with crash risk at 0.4%, a 4/5 bull regime and deep liquidity. Dealer positioning adds a layer: with spot near $450, the gamma flip sits around $445, charm decay pulls toward $465, and $460 is the upside magnet, while a $206M gamma wall and 37K contracts at $450 keep price pinned. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's delivery beat is already priced in, making it bearish heading into Wednesday's earnings. Auto margins and FSD/Robotaxi are the key items to watch. x.comÂ
Tesla's mid-term uptrend is supported by whale accumulation now exceeding 78% and a bullish red ribbon that outweighs short-term candle signals. The last volatility hole at $300 marked the cycle bottom, and previously highlighted momentum bars have flipped into support. Tesla needs to clear the next bar at $420 to unlock further price momentum. x.comÂ
Tesla looks good because its high and growing short interest tends to mark a bottom and signal trend strength. Spikes in short sale volume, and especially extended periods of heavy shorting, are more often than not bullish: the more people short, the higher it goes. x.comÂ
Tesla is not worth touching in the short term because it typically consolidates from May to September and rallies only in October to December. Musk is busy with SpaceX and not promoting Tesla, so the stock is unlikely to move up for now. The plan is to revisit in September; options markets place year-end calls at $900-960, and a choppy mid-year could give way to a year-end run from $450-500 toward $900. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's growing Cybercab robotaxi registrations set up the next burn for short sellers. Texas registrations rose by 81 today to 544, per the state registry data shown in the chart. x.comÂ
Tesla may be forming one giant bull flag on the weekly chart, with a $525 target. Whales loaded up on December $500 calls this morning. $395 is the most important level to hold in July. x.comÂ
Tesla's valuation is gradually starting to matter, with shares at 140 times a 2027 non-GAAP EPS consensus that likely gets cut. The stock fell 4% after a gross margin and EPS miss. Many fans reflexively buy post-earnings drops no matter the results, which creates opportunities. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's seasonally strong fourth quarter makes shorting the stock here unattractive. A new bullish trend still needs a clear breakout above its 200-day moving average and price-channel resistance for confirmation. x.comÂ