Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

China SXT Pharmaceuticals is a short-squeeze candidate: short interest exceeds 20%, institutional ownership exceeds 100%, no shares are left to borrow and the cost to borrow is over 500%. It has the same setup as other low-float, high-short-interest plays; after coiling all day, a pop on incoming volume is only a matter of time because shorts are trapped. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin risks a mining death spiral if its price does not recover. With 95% of supply mined, mining profits have been in the dumpster for nearly a year and fees are only 5% of the reward, not offsetting the halving. Compounding losses would force miners to stop, even with free power, since staff and maintenance still cost money, and farms could be dumped as in the 2021 crash. Fewer miners and lower difficulty mean weaker security and less trust, opening the door to quantum or AI attacks. x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin's negative momentum is pulling forward selling to raise cash for SpaceX, a secondary cause of the downturn that gets too little weight; Strategy was the catalyst. @dgt10011 argues bitcoin is being tapped to fund the market's upcoming hot trades such as SpaceX and Anthropic. x.com 

IREN offers double exposure to the AI boom as a Bitcoin miner pivoting to AI cloud on its own grid. x.com 

KULR Technology is set up for a short squeeze, with short interest above the 20% threshold on a float of 44M shares. It makes batteries for defense, transportation and space, reports earnings tomorrow after the bell and has technical momentum, with $6.00 the next major level. x.com 

Avis Budget Group looks like a great short on the way down because its roughly 500% rise over the past month appears to be just a short squeeze, with no fundamental reason or even buyout speculation behind it. x.com 

Strategy's approval to sell up to $1.25B of bitcoin for STRC dividends and debt interest removes the market's one big potential forced seller for now, leaving bitcoin's low float to push it to new highs. The move stretches the dividend runway from 5-6 months to 15+ months, or 25+ with the sale. With HODLed supply at a record, expect more chop, then new all-time highs and some altcoin outperformance. The risk: in a later secular bear market, Strategy's selling could feed a downward spiral. x.com  … Show more

Strategy separates itself from spot Bitcoin ETFs in volatile markets because it can accretively stack Bitcoin through equity and debt issuance, compounding Bitcoin per share. That disciplined capital allocation supports a persistent premium, and its transparency is why institutional capital treats it as the ultimate Bitcoin yield vehicle. Michael Saylor says Strategy remains focused on Bitcoin, disciplined allocation, credit quality and long-term value creation. x.com 

Bitcoin looks interesting because crypto has not joined the stock bull run, leaving sentiment quiet while the setup starts to make sense. The aim is to avoid chasing what has already run the hardest. x.com