Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Daily STRC dividends advance Strategy's Bitcoin financing machine. Shareholders approved the payments, and Strategy's Bitcoin printer is unstoppable. x.com 

Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com 

Strategy's funding machine is breaking as its STRC preferred trades far below $100 par, threatening a death spiral. STRC pays about 11.5% and lets Strategy buy bitcoin only while near par; at a new low of about $82, issuance stops, yet cash dividends are still due. Cash has fallen from $2.25 billion to about $1 billion, and Strategy sold 32 BTC in late May to cover STRC obligations. Higher payouts mean more bitcoin sales, which hit bitcoin's price and confidence, pushing STRC lower again. x.com 

Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com  x.com 

Falling US bank reserves are a liquidity headwind for Bitcoin. Reserves rose back to $3.03 trillion around September 16 but dropped to $2.96 trillion last week; if they keep falling, that would weigh on Bitcoin. Caution is warranted from mid-to-late September and especially in late October, which may be the year's liquidity low, with more room for optimism toward year-end. x.com 

Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com 

Strategy might be undervalued because it holds far more Bitcoin than the first time its stock traded at the same price. At $140.51 today, it holds 848,517 BTC, versus 193,000 BTC the first time shares reached $140.51. x.com  x.com 

Liquidity is leaving bitcoin for AI and robotics equities, making a short-bitcoin, long-BlackBerry pair a generational opportunity. Strategy's STRC preferred keeps falling below $100 with an unsustainable dividend mechanism that could form a doom loop, and MSTR at 1.2x mNAV is expected to fall below NAV, closer to a bottom. Bitcoin ETFs are seeing outflows in the billions and the Coinbase premium is strongly negative, while equities and tech rip. x.com  x.com 

Strategy is no longer just a levered bitcoin proxy but a credit engine that must dilute common equity and sell bitcoin to keep its capital structure afloat. It sold bitcoin below its average cost basis to buy back STRC preferred shares, breaking its "never sell" thesis. It also raised $653M through at-the-market common stock sales toward a $4.65B cash reserve, prioritizing preferred dividend coverage over buying bitcoin, which exposes the rising cost of its preferred stack. x.com