Stone Fox Capital
Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital
SoFi's raised profitability guidance will help its stock move past $20; a very big move will need interest rates to fall substantially. Management lifted 2026 adjusted EPS guidance 50%, from $0.60 to $0.90, and revenue guidance to $5.04B after Q3 revenue rose over 44% and adjusted EPS grew nearly 64% year over year. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's earnings beats and much higher 2027 outlook make its valuation at just 15x forward earnings look compelling. This is one of the most extraordinary earnings reports yet: revenue beat estimates by 9%, EPS by 6%, 2026 guidance rose, and 2027 revenue and EPS guidance came in way above estimates. x.comÂ
SoFi's egregious dilution means business growth may fail to benefit existing shareholders. Its share count rose 61% over five years, reducing an original 1% stake to about 0.6%; even 61% earnings growth could leave earnings per share flat. As a bank, SoFi is already practically uninvestable by these standards, though dilution need not destroy value if the capital raised creates more value than the ownership surrendered. x.comÂ
SoFi's conservative 2027 guide leaves room to beat expectations, barring a macro shock. Its $6.4B revenue target is 4.2% above consensus and $0.90 EPS target is $0.08 ahead; Q3 revenue grew 44.5% and net margin widened 280 basis points year over year. Cross-selling is gaining traction, management says no capital raise is needed through 2027, and CEO Anthony Noto says he is as confident in durable growth at high rates as at low rates. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's revenue growth, earnings beat and raised guidance suggest its inflection is starting. Revenue grew 44%, and its initial 2027 outlook topped consensus. x.comÂ
Robinhood's higher revenue and EPS make it clearly stronger than SoFi on these earnings. SoFi's post-earnings rally is unlikely to hold; its shares are headed for single digits. x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's historically conservative guidance and product-growth target make a path above $40 clear. Adjusted EPS grew 64% year over year while shares trade below 20x next-twelve-month earnings. Management raised FY26 guidance 12.5% and guided to $6.4B revenue and $0.90 EPS for FY27. Noto's 100 million-product target for 2030 is about 4x today's count and should translate into 4x earnings. Potential $2.44 EPS at a conservative 15-20x multiple implies $37-$49 by 2030; above $30 is a base case. x.com … Show more
SoFi's stronger revenue and earnings growth makes it worth staying with for at least another quarter. Per amitisinvesting, Q3 revenue rose 44% and adjusted EPS 64%, with 2027 revenue and EPS guidance above estimates. It still needs to show it can sustain the trajectory. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi will not get a tech multiple, so it will likely underperform about 90% of tech companies over the next five years despite being a great company. Its tech platform never grew into a larger, higher-margin share of revenue, leaving it a fast-growing bank, and its guidance includes no rate cuts. It has underperformed the S&P 500 and especially the Nasdaq 100 since its 2020 SPAC listing. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's earnings growth and accelerating margin expansion make its valuation appealing. Quarterly GAAP EPS of $0.18 puts its annualized P/E at 22 alongside 64% year-on-year earnings growth. SoFi raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from $0.40 to $0.61, roughly 50%, and projects adjusted revenue growth of 40% in 2026 and 27% in 2027, with adjusted EPS of $0.90 in 2027. x.com x.com x.comÂ