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Korean Growth & Space Investor, RKLB/TSLA/PLTR/SPCX
Everspin's narrative remains strong, and as the monopoly player it captures the entire STT-MRAM story on its own. The pending ITC litigation, with a final target date of July 2027, is an overhang that could weigh on the shares and compress the multiple whenever news comes out, so it is worth monitoring alongside the bull case. x.com x.com
Everspin's MRAM rally makes little sense, as the market is not that large and there is no MRAM monopoly. Absent an unknown breakthrough using MTJs for AI, there is no reason for the bid, and the space angle, raised by @ryandonovan23, fails because data centers will never be in space. x.com x.com x.com
Everspin's execution does not match its monopoly: revenue growth has been inconsistent and margins all over the place, so results look worse than its positioning warrants. It is the world's only at-scale maker of Toggle MRAM, radiation-immune memory the US military uses in missiles, submarines and aerospace. Its new $40M Department of War contract requires it to hand over its process technology if it ever stops making MRAM, and a Microchip partnership adds domestic production in Oregon. x.com
Everspin's MRAM is becoming indispensable for persistent, low-power, high-reliability computing at the edge, in vehicles and in defense, setting up a SanDisk-like breakout on a smaller scale if adoption accelerates. A move to $100 would not be shocking. This is high-conviction speculation: competition from embedded MRAM at scale, density and cost challenges, and a valuation already pricing in optimism make execution risk real, and analyst targets of about $12-18.50 lag the price. x.com x.com
Everspin's 38.6% surge to $18.28 after its Q1 beat has likely pulled forward much of the near-term upside: at about $425M, or 7x trailing sales, it already prices in much of 2026-2027 growth. Product sales grew 28% to $14.1M and a $40M defense contract bridges about $16M a year, but reaching $25-$30 needs quarterly revenue above $20M, hinging on July 2026 STT-MRAM qualification and a Microchip ramp with recurring orders not due until 2H 2027. Litigation costs weigh on GAAP income. x.com
Everspin now looks somewhat overvalued, because its monopoly in discrete MRAM does not justify current valuations. x.com
Everspin's case rests on follow-on Department of Defense programs within 18 months; if they do not come, the thesis is wrong. Kerrisdale's short report is right that the valuation is disconnected from fundamentals and revenue has stagnated for five years, but wrongly treats the $40M contract as a revenue event rather than a domestic capability buildout. It also underplays LEO satellites, about 10% of revenue, where Toggle MRAM's radiation hardness matters. The Q2 report on August 6 is next. … Show more
Microchip's long-term foundry deal with Everspin adds quality option value and strengthens its standing as a US specialty manufacturer, though the stock still hinges on inventory, utilization, margins and debt. Microchip will make Everspin's MRAM and TMR sensor wafers at its Oregon Fab 4 for at least ten years, putting idle capacity to work as an ITAR-ready onshore source. First shipments target late 2027 and volumes are small, so the near-term earnings impact is limited. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Everspin is among the weak small caps that would be hit hardest if multiples compress for AI infrastructure suppliers, and it does not deserve a $600M valuation. x.com
Everspin Technologies is a high-risk MRAM pure play that could multiply if MRAM scales. Microchip's onshore MRAM foundry deal secures a second source, and expanded production feeds directly into revenue, with defense, space and AI-edge memory demand as beneficiaries. The real test is 2027-2029, when mass production, customer growth and revenue must show up; today expectations exceed results. Risks include a small, volatile company, customer concentration, an early market and production delays. … Show more
Everspin is the only US-domiciled, US-manufactured MRAM maker, and its non-volatile, fast, radiation-hardened memory works where flash and DRAM cannot, making it a Pentagon supplier with no alternative. Its 10-year Microchip deal for a copy-exact line in Oregon doubles domestic capacity from H2 2027. Its UNISYST NOR flash replacement targets 5-10% of a $3 billion market, with production in 2027. It had 238 design wins in 2025, up 34%, with 52.7% gross margins and no debt. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more