ServiceNow's unexpected expense surge makes its rich valuation more vulnerable in a struggling software sector. Revenue rose 21%, but spending drove an EPS miss and one quarter of guided cRPO deceleration; wider market conditions could hurt near term. The 20% selloff looks excessive, and few software companies should benefit as much from AI. Management could deliver over 3-5 years, though the stock is only close to a buy again now; below $100 looks good for the long term. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

ServiceNow's AI contract growth and improving free cash flow margin make the 18% selloff excessive and its shares a massive discount among leading enterprise AI companies. AI net-new ACV rose 65%; its 2026 AI ACV target rose to $1.7B, up 70% from the start of the year. Adjusted operating margin slipped to 32.5% from 33.5%, but free cash flow margin rose to 20% from 17.5%. Acquisition costs, stock compensation and severance largely drove the GAAP decline. x.com  x.com  x.com 

monday.com is priced as if growth will soon turn negative, which is far from certain, at 1.1x 2027 EV/sales and 9x 2027 EV/FCF excluding SBC. It still grows in the high teens with 110% net dollar retention and just bought back a lot of stock. AI clearly threatens its UI/UX edge, but its AI features, integrations and security and governance may be hard for purely agentic tools to replicate; shorts seem to be pressing. x.com  x.com 

Some software stocks had gotten stupid cheap, including monday.com, Wix, Cellebrite, Adobe, Salesforce and Workday, which makes the sector's rebound welcome. x.com  x.com 

Security software is arguably more of an AI bubble than semiconductors. Firms are bid up to nosebleed multiples on moderate AI-related revenue acceleration while facing medium- to long-term risks from Microsoft, Google and the AI labs and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5%. Their forward P/Es rest on non-GAAP earnings that exclude large stock compensation. A reversal could come from results missing high buy-side bars, security share gains by Microsoft or Google, or AI lab security launches. x.com  … Show more

Accenture and Wolters Kluwer benefit massively from cheaper AI tokens and margin gains as they deploy AI. Their knowledge costs rank among the highest relative to COGS, but regulatory capture, reputation and sticky customers keep revenue broadly intact. Neither shows clear signs of slowing growth; Accenture guided to high-single-digit revenue growth from 2029. Despite enormous terminal-value compression, an unwinding AI-infrastructure trade could bring a sizeable rerating if fundamentals hold. … Show more

Software is nowhere near a floor because AI has broken the assumption behind the sector's premium: very long-duration, highly recurring revenue. Competition is intensifying, new products such as Anthropic's suite far outperform incumbents like Microsoft Copilot, and AI natives move faster without legacy constraints. Accounting flatters results, with Snowflake's SBC above its CY25 free cash flow. Even at 30x GAAP earnings most names have downside, versus Alphabet at 23x and Nvidia at 14x. x.com  … Show more

Workday at 3x sales is a travesty for a business of its quality, implying the market expects management to destroy value through poor capital allocation on top of AI fears. It could likely raise margins toward 30% without much customer impact, given bloat and complacency; the same factors that make it easy to catch up also make it easy to run more profitably. Venture valuations like Rippling's make more sense with Workday at 6-8x sales. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Constellation Software has no way to benefit from AI and little organic growth, so 21x GAAP EBIT looks fair, with perhaps a downside skew if churn rises across its portfolio in the next five years. The market's negative reaction is rational. Its small vertical software businesses were run financially rather than for product, many still on-prem, with no central AI strategy as software gets cheaper to build. Organic growth was 2% in constant currency; inorganic growth is fundamentally different. … Show more

These ten businesses look ridiculously cheap against their own history on forward earnings. SoFi trades at 22.7x vs 48x in 2025, Uber 17x vs 24x last year, Netflix 20.6x vs 39x in 2024, Amazon 27x vs 45x in 2023, ServiceNow 31.1x vs 68x in 2024, Nvidia 19x vs 36x in 2025, Salesforce 16.2x vs 30-32x, Adobe 9x vs 26x in 2024, Microsoft 25.3x vs 32-35x, and Broadcom 20.5x vs 44x in 2025. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com