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Amkor carries higher conviction than Nvidia because it holds up under both Taiwan and competition risk. If a naval blockade or invasion of Taiwan hits semis, Amkor should rise, as Intel would. If Taiwan doesn't happen in the next couple of years, Amkor should pick up significant advanced-packaging business in Arizona by 2029. Competition matters mostly as a narrative weighing on shares; Amkor does well if Nvidia does, and likely regardless. x.com
Amkor's Nvidia advanced-packaging agreement gives its Arizona expansion a $1.5B multiyear commitment. Q2 sales rose 26% to $1.90B, with record computing revenue; Q3 results are due October 26. x.com
Amkor's drop of more than 30% from its high looks ridiculous after NVIDIA, TSMC and AMD picked it within two months. Amkor packages, stacks and tests finished wafers, and advanced packaging has become one of AI's key bottlenecks. Almost all of it happens in Asia, and Amkor is basically the only US name doing it at scale, so reshoring and CHIPS Act money flows its way. It signed a 10-year packaging deal with TSMC in Arizona and a $1.5B multi-year NVIDIA deal, with NVIDIA prepaying for capacity. … Show more
Amkor's underwhelming guidance is not the kind of sign seen at a bottom. x.com
Amkor Technology's story is only beginning, as a smaller version of TSMC. Expect steady, consistent growth over a horizon longer than the end of 2027, not a quick 2-3x. x.com x.com
Amkor could fill its underused traditional packaging capacity, such as in the Philippines, at higher prices if a reported shortage materializes, lifting nearer-term revenue. IC design insiders say packaging providers have warned clients of a traditional packaging capacity deficit exceeding 20% by 2027, as AI server shipments drive demand for mature chips and absorb existing capacity. The main ramp still comes in early 2028 in Arizona, once TSMC and Nvidia work there takes off. x.com x.com
Amkor looks cheap at roughly 17x projected 2027 earnings of $2.83 a share, with its Arizona advanced-packaging capacity near TSM not expected to run near full utilization until 2028. The buildout has incurred substantial debt; the market may begin looking toward 2028 next year. The ramp remains prospective. x.com x.com
Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com x.com x.com
Amkor's expansion in advanced packaging supports a bullish growth outlook as that work becomes more important. Packaging accounts for 88% of sales and computing revenue rose 25%; capacity spending explains negative free cash flow. Q3 EPS was $0.76, implying roughly 12x annualized earnings, while Q4 EPS guidance is $0.65-$0.75. The compute opportunity is only starting, despite the decline in mobile. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Amkor stands to gain as outsourced packaging and test providers become central to advanced chips, and its 10-year TSMC deal locks that in. Per @wallstengine, TSMC will procure advanced packaging and testing services from Amkor's Arizona campus, linking TSMC's US chip manufacturing with Amkor's US capacity. The deal is good for CoWoS and great for Amkor, but pressures Intel, whose EMIB moat rests partly on on-shore availability to US fabless customers. x.com x.com
Amkor stands to benefit as the first US-made Nvidia GB300 AI chips roll off TSMC's Arizona fab, a major step toward domestic AI chip production. Those chips still need CoWoS advanced packaging before production is fully localized in the US. x.com
