Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com 

Tesla's Cybercab may command a premium because it offers a much better ride. It seems to earn over $3 per mile, making Tesla a cash generator for now, though that pricing may not last. Q4 robotaxi miles already appear above Q3 with less than a third of the quarter elapsed; paid miles are tracking for over 3x quarterly growth. Grok roughly estimates Tesla's robotaxi annual revenue run rate at $100-150M versus Waymo's $390-500M; Tesla is on pace to overtake Waymo within months. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Uber is decent value because robotaxis will not be a winner-take-all market. Uber has massive investments and projects with Nvidia and will have its own self-driving robotaxis on the road. It trades at about 18 times earnings versus roughly 380 for Tesla, though sentiment will make it a frustrating tug of war for a long time. x.com 

Tesla's FSD uptake could add recurring software revenue to its vehicle base, while Robotaxi could earn on each ride. This could be Tesla's most important inflection point, missed amid weak auto profits. North American attach rates rose to 75% from 55% in Q2; subscriptions hit 1.74 million, up 67% year over year, and Cybercab rides began in Austin. Trials may not become lasting paid subscriptions; Robotaxi needs safe operation, steady paying demand and attractive returns at scale. x.com 

Tesla's Cybercab can scale far faster than Waymo, which underpins its long-term potential. The Cybercab is efficient and cheap to build, and Tesla can scale it into the millions quickly with US-sourced parts, while Waymo is inefficient, expensive and very hard to scale. Riders are proud to be seen in a Cybercab rather than hiding behind tinted glass. As @michbetancourt1 notes, Tesla is also building an energy backlog that could reach revenue from 2027; quick-profit seekers miss this potential. … Show more

Uber looks cheap, and insiders who know the company best are buying, a point @SteurJonas69716 raises. The stock is a solid buy as long as robotaxis do not kill the business, which is doubtful. x.com  x.com 

Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Uber cannot compete long term on two of the three things that win consumer markets: product quality and price. Distribution alone will not carry it, though it should keep growing for the next three years because transitions take time. That qualifies @oguzerkan's view that distribution is king and will protect Uber from Tesla and Waymo. x.com 

Uber can still win even if Tesla's Cybercab leads, because self-driving overall will be a massive money maker and a rising tide lifts all ships. x.com 

Uber has big long-term secular problems, enough to make even CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's $10M token insider buy a moment to consider shorting, though actually shorting is not recommended. Beyond the Waymo and robotaxi threat, an AI agent that constantly checks every app for the best price would hurt Uber, consistently the highest-priced ride service. Uber would need to lower prices, and it lacks the tech stack. x.com  x.com