Matthew Tuttle
CEO & CIO of Tuttle Capital Management, Publisher of Daily H.E.A.T.
Energy risk is being structurally repriced, favoring producers that never touch a chokepoint, such as Occidental and Viper Energy. Drone strikes took out Saudi Arabia's Petroline, which moved 4 million barrels a day, about 4% of world supply, as insurance against a Hormuz closure, and the Houthis seized Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb, compromising both Saudi exits. Brent rose 8.7% to $104.61 as the Fed hiked into it. A barrel stuck behind a strait is worth zero. x.comÂ
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, America's energy shock absorber, is at its lowest level in 40 years, setting up the most asymmetric energy trade of the decade. The next supply disruption, from the Middle East, Russia or a domestic production miss, will not be absorbed by the government but repriced fast into energy equities. While investors chased semiconductors at 40x earnings, the physical layer of pipelines, storage, LNG terminals and energy services was ignored. x.comÂ
US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com … Show more
US energy stocks stand to benefit from the Strait of Hormuz closure. With Hormuz closed, energy stocks are open for business. x.comÂ
US energy stocks EQT, EOG Resources, natural-gas producers and Exxon still deserve attention even at current levels, because the Iran conflict will last longer than the administration is communicating. Iran may have created a permanent toll booth for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving President Trump in a bind even if he backs down. @aleabitoreddit notes oil and LNG exporters could run further if tensions escalate. x.comÂ
All three routes for Middle East oil out of the war zone shut within 72 hours, and the Fed cannot fix that. Strait of Hormuz traffic fell from over 130 ships a day before the war to 31, then zero. Iraqi drones hit pump stations on the Saudi East-West pipeline, leaving Riyadh five to seven days of crude stored at its end. In the Red Sea, a militia seized Mokha, Perim and the Hanish Islands and bars Saudi ships. Iran only needs to wait: America votes in 49 days, Iran not until 2028. x.com x.com … Show more
Crude oil's geopolitical risk premium is bleeding out as Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline reopens. Piping crude straight to the Red Sea bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and vulnerable Gulf shipping lanes, removing a major supply bottleneck. That recovery erases the premium added after the September 10 attacks and stabilizes energy flows when macro markets needed it most. x.comÂ
Daily attacks on Saudi energy installations, seemingly at will, are a bigger driver of oil's rise than Hormuz. If they escalate and meaningfully damage Saudi production, $200 oil isn't impossible. x.comÂ
US energy stocks should catch a bid now that Iran's IRGC navy has closed the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely, effectively a blockade. About 20% of global oil supply moves through it, including crude from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE, with no alternative route for that volume. Tanker insurance should spike and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds weeks on stretched supply, pushing crude higher. Fertilizer and plastics costs get squeezed, complicating the Fed's inflation view. x.com … Show more
Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.comÂ
The Strait of Hormuz situation looks bad for oil supply, because Iran has the leverage to keep control of it and collect tolls. Iranian drones have changed the equation despite substantial US air and naval power, there has been no uprising, and any ground invasion would take very long. Saudi Arabia and Qatar lack the naval muscle and rely on the US, and new pipelines take years, so affected countries will have to play ball for at least a few years. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Oil stocks are worth buying on any dip because this is the biggest energy crisis, and its shock wave has not yet reached the US. Some oil producers are hurt by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, so weakness can be company-specific, as @StockyPlatano's planned short of Occidental Petroleum suggests. x.com x.comÂ
